CURRENT AFFAIRS – 12/07/2023

The story so far:

Every year, the entire country awaits the onset and evolution of monsoon with baited breath. Each year tends to be different, and this year has managed to produce a rather unique onset and evolution thus far. The onset this season was delayed by unforeseen interactions between typhoons and cyclones. Cyclone Biparjoy was born after the onset and lingered for longer than normal to delay the arrival of monsoon over Mumbai by nearly two weeks. For the first time in over half a century, the city saw monsoon arrive together with Delhi. The monsoon trough thus ended up with an exaggerated curvature over northwest India.

The deficit due to the delayed onset has been all but wiped out but the distribution of rainfall remains as patchy as ever, with excess rainfall over the northern Western Ghats into northwest India and deficits extending in a horseshoe pattern from Uttar Pradesh into Odisha and back to the east into Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Extreme heat has also been reported in parts of Himachal Pradesh, even as some areas of the State received heavy rainfall.

The impact of climate change has always been of great interest, but it is worth remembering that everything today happens in a warmer world that is also more humid. With global warming, a warm and humid atmosphere acts like a steroid for the weather. Every weather event now has some contribution from global warming. At the same time, one must also pay close attention to weather patterns that emerge due to other factors. While the El Niño has been grabbing many headlines this year, it is not yet clear how much the current monsoon mayhem has had to do with the El Niño.

Additionally, wildfires thus far this year have burned over three-times the normal area and have also emitted about three times as much carbon dioxide. This has also had a contribution to the warming.

The Indian subcontinent is like a popcorn kettle that gets heated up as the Sun crosses over into the northern hemisphere in March. Rainfall is like the kernels of corn popping randomly around the kettle. That is, monsoon rainfall distribution always tends to be patchy.

Excess rainfall over northwest India is consistent with the Arabian Sea having warmed by about 1.5 degrees Celsius since January. This was expected, according to a study last year that the author was part of.

June contributes only about 15% of the rainfall to the seasonal total. The instabilities in the atmosphere that drive convection are not strong enough to drive large-scale rainfall during the pre-monsoon season. Rainfall this pre-monsoon was above normal due to a combination of the warm Arabian Sea and an unusually high number of western disturbances. As a result, soils were left moister than normal, which in turn affected the evolution of the monsoon. However, the mystery is that, despite averaging rainfall over a month, a season or even multiple seasons, rainfall distribution remains uneven. Disuniform terrain and heterogeneous land-use patterns are the likely culprits.

The Atlantic Ocean and the upper atmospheric circulation also tinker with the monsoon. The entire Atlantic Ocean has been warmer than normal since March. While the so-called Atlantic Niño, with a warm tropical Atlantic, generally tends to suppress monsoon rainfall, it is not clear what the impacts are when the entire Atlantic is as warm as it has been this year.

The strongest winds that occur in the upper atmosphere can spontaneously break into clockwise and anticlockwise patterns, especially when they run into mountainous terrain, such as the Himalaya. Strong clockwise winds, with air flowing out from the centre, in the upper atmosphere demand an anticlockwise circulation near the surface, in order to feed the upper-level outflow. Such a convergence near the surface can drive excess rainfall.

Finally, the warming over the Himalaya has not been uniform either. Some parts of the mountain chain are amplifying global warming, leading to rapid local warming. Irregular weather patterns during the monsoon superpose on these local features as a result of the winds expanding or compressing as they race up and down the narrow valleys. The results can be cloudbursts, heavy rains or even heatwaves — depending on the local flow patterns.

Such disparate weather patterns can occur side by side as well.

The conclusion is that the Indian subcontinent is a veritable popcorn kettle that can throw up many surprises. Everything is not directly attributable to global warming — even as every little weather event is happening in a warmer and wetter world. Only improved forecasts with sufficient granularity in space and time can reduce the element of surprise resulting from these weather monsters.

Raghu Murtugudde is a visiting professor at IIT Bombay and an emeritus professor at the University of Maryland.

In less than a month since the onset of the monsoon, from June 24 to July 10, over 41 incidents of landslips, 29 flash floods and one cloudburst have occurred so far in Himachal Pradesh, with relentless rain pounding the hill State and leaving behind a trail of destruction.

At least 80 people have lost their lives in rain-related incidents. This has yet again triggered a debate over whether the ongoing “fury of nature” is a man-made disaster inevitably visited upon the Himalayan region.

Manshi Asher, an environmentalist associated with the Himdhara Environment Research and Action Collective, said the flash floods in Himachal Pradesh had been evidently triggered by excess rainfall but they had also been “intensified” by muck and debris dumped along streams and rivers.

“These are directly or indirectly caused due to land-use change, erosion caused by deforestation, and slopes destabilised by construction. Building along the river bed in floodplains blocks the path of the river in spate and is harmful. But it is the excavation, tree felling and digging of slopes for roads, highways, buildings and dams that causes landslips which, in turn, lead to flash floods, causing damage downstream,” Ms. Asher said.

Himachal Pradesh’s State of the Environment Report, released in 2022 by the Department of Environment, Science and Technology, points out that mountain areas are highly vulnerable to natural disasters, and development over the years has compounded the problem by upsetting the natural balance of various physical processes. The report added that the increased pressure on the mountain environment has contributed in some measure to environmental problems such as landslips, land subsidence, removal of vegetation and soil erosion.

Naresh Chauhan, Principal Adviser to the Chief Minister, said while the current spell of rain was unprecedented, there is a need to ensure that debris and muck are not thrown into rivers or rivulets during the construction of roads, projects or dwellings. Also, construction near rivers needs to be regulated, he added.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) on Tuesday completed the launch rehearsal of the Chandrayaan-3 mission.

“Chandrayaan-3 mission: The ‘Launch Rehearsal’ simulating the entire launch preparation and process lasting 24 hours has been concluded,” the space agency tweeted.

India’s third moon mission, Chandrayaan-3, is scheduled to be launched at 2.35 p.m. on July 14 from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota. The spacecraft will be launched by the Launch Vehicle Mark-III (LVM3). Last week, ISRO Chairman S. Somanath said that if the launch takes place as scheduled, the landing on the lunar surface would most likely take place on August 23 or 24. Chandrayaan-3 is aimed at developing and demonstrating new technologies required for interplanetary missions.

Who doesn’t enjoy the sight of the Moon? Whether its phase is gibbous, crescent, or complete, the Moon mesmerises children, poets, and anyone who identifies with nature for its serene beauty, its sense of calm, and the sensations it kindles.

Scientists are interested in the moon to understand its origin and characteristics, and, if possible, to explore the possibility of inhabiting it – and these studies require going to the Moon. Not many countries have undertaken such studies, but India is well-positioned with its industrial and technological support base and trained human resources to venture into studying the moon at close quarters. This feat is yet another feather in the cap of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). No wonder it attracts talented youth from the best institutions in the country.

ISRO’s first attempt was the Chandrayaan 1 (“Lunar Vehicle 1”) mission, which began in October 2008 with a launch of the very successful Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). The rocket carried a lunar orbiter meant to go around the moon, like a satellite and an impact probe. The orbiter relieved the impact probe to hit the surface of the south polar region of the moon, to generate data relevant to designing a lunar rover that would be a part of the payload in a subsequent mission.

While descending to the moon, the impactor probe collected information on the chemical composition of the lunar atmosphere. Notably, this mission established the availability of water molecules on the moon, a discovery that may be crucial for future crewed missions. The probe also carved the national flag of India on the Moon, announcing the country’s arrival.

The mission did not last two years as planned, possibly due to overheating issues in the orbiter, but it achieved most of its scientific objectives. In a testament to its success, it received many accolades from the international community.

The next such mission was Chandrayaan 2 in July 2019, which was launched by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV). Its payload included a moon lander that carried a rover to release on the moon. The lander, unfortunately, crashed on the lunar surface due to a software glitch, and the rover did not detach from the lander, so further studies of the moon’s surface were impossible.

A Chennai-based amateur space enthusiast named Shanmuga Subramanian, skilled in image analysis, identified the location of the lander’s debris, and NASA later confirmed it. Participation by citizens in big science projects is a welcome trend and researchers should strive to create such opportunities.

Currently, ISRO is planning Chandrayaan-3 to demonstrate end-to-end capability for safe landing and roving on the lunar surface. The launch is scheduled for July 14 at 2.35 pm. The mission will be launched on board the Launch Vehicle Mark III (LVM 3, a.k.a. GSLV Mk III). The vehicle will carry a lander attached to a propulsion module. The latter will carry the former to a circular orbit around the moon, after which the lander will descend to the surface. The lander module will carry a rover that it will deploy on the moon, and a few other pieces of scientific equipment. The lander and the rover are expected to be operational for about two weeks.

As in previous missions, the scientific mission will study the chemical composition of the lunar surface, local seismic activity, and plasma concentration, among other features. The propulsion module will have a payload called ‘Spectro-polarimetry of Habitable Planet Earth’ (SHAPE), which will track radiation from the earth to help identify the signatures of life, which future missions can use in turn to look for signs of life on habitable exoplanets. So Chandrayaan-3 is also to look beyond the Moon.

Lessons learned from Chandrayaan-2 will help avoid design deficiencies that are likely to contribute to failures. Some such ‘upgrades’ already include strengthened legs on the lander and software updated to include failure scenarios.

Missions like Chandrayaan are important because many countries participate in them. These missions are collaborative global efforts that strengthen scientific exchange and camaraderie between countries.

There is scope for international collaboration in future missions to explore the south-polar region of the Moon. The craters here have locations that don’t receive sunlight. These shadowed sites are cold and hold hydrogen, water, and ice. They could also host primordial material that could help us understand the origins of the Solar System. The biggest lunar crater is also in the south polar region. The origin of this crater, which formed about 4 billion years ago, is still unclear. So understanding our cosmic neighbour will go a long way towards gaining insights about the cosmos.

Why should India spend on these high-tech areas instead of investing in available technologies that can be used more readily for the public good? It is because they can be used for the public good, too. Developing countries need knowledge of such concepts to improve their citizens’ quality of life. Space technologies have also become essential for weather prediction, assessment of marine resources, estimation of forest cover, communication, defence – to just name a few. Every country needs technologies of both futuristic and immediately relevant varieties, together with a well-thought-out apportionment of resources between these two areas.

Indeed, R. Chidambaram, a former Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India, once remarked that participating in an emerging technology makes a nation a leader in that field, giving it bargaining power when dealing with other countries. This in turn will enable a country to enhance its science and technology base to improve its citizens’ and its prestige.

The authors are members of the physics faculty at Krea University.

At least six out of the 31 members of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Forest (Conservation) Amendment Bill have filed dissent notes, raising an alarm over exemptions extended to significant tracts of land in the draft legislation, even as the panel cleared the controversial Bill without proposing any changes.

The Bill is expected to be tabled in Parliament in the Monsoon Session that starts on July 20.

The dissenting members are Congress MPs Pradyot Bordoloi (from the Lok Sabha) and Phulo Devi Netam (Rajya Sabha); Trinamool Congress MPs Jawahar Sircar (Rajya Sabha) and Sajda Ahmed (Lok Sabha); and DMK MPs T.R. Baalu and R. Girirajan. The Bill seeks to amend the Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980, that was brought in to check uncontrolled and unregulated use of forest land for various non-forestry uses.

Both the Congress and Trinamool members have raised objections to amendment that provides exemption for the lands, “situated within a distance of 100 km along international borders or Line of Control or Line of Actual Control,” for “construction of strategic linear projects of national importance and concerning national security”.

The Congress MPs noted that this clause could prove detrimental to significant forests in Himalayan, trans-Himalayan and north-eastern regions. Clearing such forests without proper assessment and mitigation plan will not only threaten the biodiversity of vulnerable ecological and geologically sensitive areas but also could trigger extreme weather events, they said. Mr. Sircar, the Trinamool MP, recommended that the State governments concerned should also be consulted before clearing the forests in such sensitive areas. He also recommended that instead of extending the exemption to all lands within a distance of 100 km along international borders, it should be limited to area along the “Himalayan” borders.

Members from all the three parties dissented against the move to rename the Bill Van [Sanrakshan Evam Samvardhan] Adhiniyam, instead of the existing Forest (Conservation) Act. Mr. Bordoloi noted that the new terminology leaves out non-Hindi speaking population, while DMK’s Girirajan, said that such “Sanskritic terminology is untenable”.

The DMK members also said that the amended Act infringed on the State government’s rights.

A total of 415 million people moved out of poverty in India within just 15 years from 2005-06 to 2019-21, with its incidence falling from 55.1% to 16.4% during the period, the United Nations (UN) said on Tuesday.

The latest update of the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) was released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford.

It said that 25 countries, including India, successfully halved their global MPI values within 15 years, showing that rapid progress is attainable. These countries include Cambodia, China, Congo, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Serbia and Vietnam.

“The report demonstrates that poverty reduction is achievable. However, the lack of comprehensive data during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic poses challenges in assessing immediate prospects,” it added.

In 2005-06, about 645 million people were in multidimensional poverty in India, with this number declining to about 370 million in 2015-16 and 230 million in 2019-21.

The report noted that deprivation in all indicators declined in India and “the poorest States and groups, including children and people in disadvantaged caste groups, had the fastest absolute progress”.

According to the report, people who are multidimensionally poor and deprived under the nutrition indicator in India declined from 44.3% in 2005-06 to 11.8% in 2019-21, and child mortality fell from 4.5% to 1.5%.

“Those who are poor and deprived of cooking fuel fell from 52.9% to 13.9% and those deprived of sanitation fell from 50.4% in 2005/2006 to 11.3% in 2019/2021,” according to the report.

In the drinking water indicator, the percentage of people who are multidimensionally poor and deprived fell from 16.4 to 2.7 during the period, electricity (from 29 to 2.1) and housing from 44.9 to 13.6.

The report said countries with different incidences of poverty also halved their global MPI value.

While 17 countries that did so had an incidence under 25% in the first period, India and Congo had a starting incidence above 50%.

India was among the 19 countries that halved their global MPI value during one period — for India it was 2005-06 to 2015-16.

According to the 2023 release, 1.1 billion out of 6.1 billion people (just more than 18%) live in acute multidimensional poverty across 110 countries.

France has already made a delivery of a number of SCALP long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, a military source told AFP on Tuesday, after President Emmanuel Macron announced the supplies.

The official, speaking at the NATO summit, did not say how many SCALP — an air-launched British-French missile known to U.K. forces as the “Storm Shadow” and the longest-range Western weapon in Ukraine — had been sent.

Mr. Macron said the new missile delivery was designed to allow Ukraine to strike at Russian occupation forces “in depth” during its counteroffensive to liberate its territory.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that France’s decision to send the missile “is a mistake with consequences for the Ukrainian side, because this will of course force us to take countermeasures.”