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CURRENT AFFAIRS – 03/01/2024

CURRENT AFFAIRS - 03/01/2024

CURRENT AFFAIRS – 03/01/2024

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  1. CURRENT AFFAIRS – 03/01/2024

CURRENT AFFAIRS – 03/01/2024

Why many US allies have not joined its Red Sea Security Op?

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : The Indian Express

As part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a maritime security initiative in the Red Sea, the United States military engaged Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

  • These incidents have disrupted trade along the vital Red Sea route connecting the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean.

Key Highlights

  • Attacks on Red Sea shipping routes led to cargo movement pauses by numerous businesses.
  • The Red Sea is a critical trade route connecting major water bodies, exacerbating the economic impact.
  • US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin announced the joint security initiative in December 2023 to ensure safe ship movements.
  • Initial reports indicated the participation of nine countries, including the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain.
  • Despite the security initiative, several US allies, including Australia, Japan, and major Arab nations like Saudi Arabia, have not committed to the operation.
  • Reasons for non-participation may involve complex geopolitical considerations, regional dynamics, and differing national interests.
  • Geopolitical Context:
    • The attacks underscore tensions in the region, with Houthi actions linked to broader conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
    • The absence of key allies in Operation Prosperity Guardian raises questions about the coalition’s effectiveness and unity.
  • Recent drone attacks near the Gujarat coast indicate a broader security challenge in the region.
  • The situation remains fluid, and the international response to the Houthi attacks continues to evolve.
  • Middle East Nations’ Stand
    • Bahrain’s participation in Operation Prosperity Guardian is singular among Middle Eastern nations, primarily due to its hosting of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, highlighting a critical strategic alliance with the United State
    • Since Israel’s establishment in 1948, Arab nations have maintained a principled opposition, aligning with the Palestinian cause.
    • Recent efforts to normalize relations face challenges due to global condemnation of Israeli military actions, especially concerning civilian casualties in Gaza.
    • In October, several Arab nations, including the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, and Morocco, condemned Israel for alleged violations of international law in response to attacks from Hamas.
    • This condemnation renews emphasis on the Palestinian cause, complicating alignment against the Houthi rebels.
    • Saudi Arabia, a key player in the Yemen civil war against the Houthis, now seeks peace talks and closer ties with Iran, believed to support the rebels.
      • Explicitly opposing the Houthis could undermine Saudi efforts for peace and regional diplomacy.
    • Reports indicate that over 20 countries have joined Operation Prosperity Guardian, yet many are hesitant to publicly declare their partnership.
    • This suggests a nuanced international response to the Red Sea situation, reflecting the complex geopolitical landscape in the region.
  • Why other partners are reluctant?
    • Spain’s defense ministry declares a unilateral non-participation in the Red Sea operation, signaling a reluctance to fully commit to the mission without broader international consensus.
    • Italy sends naval frigate VirginioFasan to the Red Sea but clarifies that it aims to protect national interests in response to specific requests from Italian shipowners.
      • Italy’s contribution is not framed as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian.
    • The Netherlands plans to send two staff officers, while Norway commits to sending 10 naval officers to Bahrain.
    • Denmark indicates its involvement through the dispatch of a single officer.
    • These measured contributions suggest a cautious approach, possibly driven by a desire to avoid deep entanglement in a global flashpoint.
    • Several countries display a lack of enthusiasm, hinting at a broader reluctance to become extensively involved in a situation heightened by Israel’s ongoing offensive.
    • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statement on the prolonged duration of the conflict may contribute to this caution.
    • Australia decides not to send a ship or plane to Operation Prosperity Guardian but triples its contribution to the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF).
    • Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles emphasizes a strategic focus on the north-east Indian Ocean, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Pacific, indicating a prioritization of regional concerns over involvement in the Red Sea operation.
  • Operation Prosperity Guardian will be coordinated by the Combined Task Force 153, established in April 2022 to enhance maritime security in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden.

Geography in Focus: Red Sea

  • Positioned between Africa and Asia, the Red Sea connects to the Indian Ocean in the south through the Bab el Mandeb strait and the Gulf of Aden.
  • To the north, it is bordered by the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Gulf of Suez, which leads to the Suez Canal.
  • Extending approximately 1,200 miles (1,900 kilometers), the Red Sea is bordered by Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Jordan.
  • Geological Dimensions:
    • Covers a surface area of approximately 438,000 km2 (169,000 sq mi).
    • Length measures about 2,250 km (1,400 mi), and the widest point spans 355 km (221 mi).
    • Average depth is 490 m (1,610 ft), reaching a maximum depth of 3,040 m (9,970 ft) in the central Suakin Trough.
    • Depth and Shallow Areas:
      • About 40% of the Red Sea is relatively shallow, less than 100 m (330 ft) deep.
      • Approximately 25% of the sea is even shallower, less than 50 m (164 ft) deep.
      • The shallow shelves are notable for diverse marine life and coral formations.
    • The Red Sea is a crucial maritime corridor that links the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea.
    • It facilitates international trade by providing the shortest maritime route between Europe and the lands lying around the Indian and western Pacific oceans.
    • The Red Sea region holds economic significance due to its role in global shipping and trade.
    • Major ports along the Red Sea include Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), Port Sudan (Sudan), Djibouti City (Djibouti), and others.
    • The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a strategic chokepoint vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.
    • The Red Sea is part of the Great Rift Valley, formed by the Red Sea Rift, which is a divergent tectonic plate boundary.
    • Marine Biodiversity:
      • The Red Sea boasts a rich marine ecosystem with more than 1,000 invertebrate species and a variety of soft and hard coral types.
      • Recognized as the world’s northernmost tropical sea, it holds ecological importance and has been designated a Global 200 ecoregion.

How the Northeast was ‘invented’, 52 years ago?

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : The Indian Express

The term ‘Northeast India’ gained prominence in the 1970s and is commonly used today to refer to a diverse region.

  • Despite its recent adoption, it has become a widely accepted descriptor for the region’s inhabitants, known as ‘Northeasterners,’ regardless of their self-identification.

Key Highlights

  • Northeast India officially comprises eight states, namely Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura.
  • These states are part of the North-Eastern Council, a statutory advisory body playing a role in development planning and regional policy-making.
  • Historical Background and Colonial Roots:
    • Pre-Independence, five present-day states (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram) were part of colonial Assam.
    • Manipur and Tripura were princely states with British political officers, and Sikkim, though juridically independent, came under British paramountcy before its annexation by India in 1975.
  • Colonial Assam as a ‘Frontier Province’:
    • Colonial Assam, akin to the North West Frontier Province in British India, operated with a distinct political and legal setup.
    • The ‘settled districts’ of Assam, including present-day Assam and Sylhet (now in Bangladesh), were economically thriving with tea, coal, and oil industries.
    • ‘Excluded areas’ or ‘Hill areas,’ controlled by various tribes, served as a buffer between the densely populated ‘settled districts’ and international borders.
    • The ‘excluded areas’ in colonial Assam, comparable to the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) in the North West Frontier Province, included the North East Frontier Tracts (modern-day Arunachal Pradesh and a part of Nagaland), demarcated in 1914.
    • These areas acted as buffer zones between the settled districts and international borders, contributing to the unique administrative and demographic landscape of Northeast India.
  • Transformation Post-Independence:
    • Northeast India, unlike other postcolonial territories, underwent a unique transformation after Independence, marked by the Indian state’s efforts to integrate the imperial frontier space into the national identity.
    • The term ‘Northeast India’ itself emerged as an official place-name during this postcolonial period.
    • The primary motivation for reshaping the region was rooted in national security concerns, as 98% of the region’s borders became international after 1947.
    • The Siliguri corridor, often called the “chicken’s neck,” served as the sole physical connection between Northeast India and the rest of the country.
    • Ad hoc decisions were made to replace the colonial frontier province’s administrative setup, reflecting the urgency to address security challenges.
  • Heightened Security Concerns in the 1960s and Reorganization of States:
    • The 1960s witnessed heightened national security concerns, with the Indo-China war of 1962, the Naga independence movement, the Indo-Pakistan war of 1965, and the Mizo rebellion in 1966.
    • Fears of external and domestic enemies joining forces intensified, prompting immediate actions to safeguard national security.
    • Nagaland’s statehood, established a year after the China war, aimed to engage Naga stakeholders in the Indian system to curb the rebellion led by AngamiZapuPhizo.
    • The North-Eastern Areas (Reorganisation) Act of 1971 led to Manipur and Tripura attaining statehood.
    • Meghalaya was formed from autonomous districts in Assam, and Mizoram became a union territory.
    • The North East Frontier Agency became the union territory of Arunachal Pradesh.
    • Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh achieved full statehood in 1987, marking a structural shift in the governance of the region.
  • The Significance of Naming:
    • The term “Northeast” as a directional name prompts a reflection on the point of origin, emphasizing its hierarchical relation to the Indian “heartland” since Independence.
    • This choice of nomenclature reflects a distinct and possibly hierarchical connection between the region and the nation.
    • The regional identifier “Northeasterner” has become normalized, contributing to the othering of the people from the region.
    • While individuals rarely self-identify as “Northeasterners,” the term is widely used outside the region, indicating a perception of distinctiveness.
  • Racialized Identity and Stereotypes:
    • Northeasterners often face racialized categorization, experiencing racial slurs based on phenotypic stereotypes.
    • Misrecognition and non-recognition are common issues, with individuals from the region being mistaken for nationals of other countries such as China, Nepal, Thailand, or Japan.
  • Challenges Resulting from Governance Structure:
    • The establishment of the new governance structure and its nomenclature, a product of a muddling-through process, has unintentionally led to both the resolution of some issues and the creation of new problems.
    • The lack of careful consideration of the consequences during the naming process has contributed to the complexities faced by the region.

Free Movement Regime to end at Myanmar border

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : TH

The Indian government is set to revoke the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the unfenced border with Myanmar.

  • The FMR, established in the 1970s and last revised in 2016, allowed people in border areas to cross without visas, based on familial and ethnic ties.

Key Highlights

  • Visa Requirement Implementation:
    • The Union government official stated that people in border areas will soon require visas to cross into India.
    • The move aims to enhance border security and control the movement of individuals across the border.
  • Border Fencing Initiative:
    • Approximately 300 km of the India-Myanmar border will be fenced.
    • A tender for the fencing project is expected to be issued soon, following the completion of a survey using drones.
  • Despite concerns from states like Nagaland and Mizoram, the official emphasized that border security falls under the Centre’s domain.
  • The Union government is in talks with Myanmar regarding the decision.
  • Free Movement Regime Details:
    • Under the FMR, hill tribe members residing within 16 km on either side of the border could cross with a border pass, valid for a year, staying up to two weeks per visit.
    • Manipur had suspended the FMR since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Manipur Chief Minister had urged the Ministry of Home Affairs to cancel the FMR along the India-Myanmar border and complete the fencing.
    • The Chief Minister had linked ongoing ethnic violence in the state to the free movement of people across the border.
  • Impact of Myanmar Coup:
    • Following the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, there was an influx of undocumented migrants.
    • Over 40,000 refugees sought shelter in Mizoram, and approximately 4,000 refugees entered Manipur, mainly from the Kuki-Chin-Zo ethnic group.
  • India shares a 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar, passing through Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram.

About India-Myanmar Relations

  • India-Myanmar relations have deep historical roots, with cultural exchanges involving Buddhism and the Burmese script, which is based on the Indian Grantha script.
  • Theravada Buddhism has had a profound influence on Burmese society and culture, with the majority of the population adhering to this religion.
  • During British rule, Myanmar was made a province of British India but was separated in 1937.
  • India established diplomatic relations with Myanmar in 1948 after its independence from Britain.
  • Strong ties initially existed due to historical connections, cultural links, flourishing commerce, shared regional interests, and the presence of a significant Indian community in Myanmar.
  • Strains in Relations:
    • Strains emerged after the overthrow of Myanmar’s democratic government by the military, leading to condemnation by India and the expulsion of the Burmese Indian community by Myanmar.
    • India’s support for the pro-democracy movement further strained relations, with only China maintaining close links with Myanmar during this period.
  • Shifting Dynamics Since 1993:
    • Indian Prime Ministers P. V. Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee worked to establish warmer relations with Myanmar from 1993 onward.
    • This shift in policy aimed to enhance India’s participation and influence in Southeast Asia, particularly in response to the growing influence of the People’s Republic of China.
  • Economic Relations:
    • India is Burma’s 4th largest trading partner, following Thailand, China, and Singapore.
    • It is also the second-largest export market, absorbing 25% of Burma’s total exports.
    • India holds the seventh position as a source of Burma’s imports.
    • The bilateral border trade agreement, established in 1994, allows trade to occur at three designated border points located in Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland.
  • Infrastructure Initiatives:
    • Indo-Myanmar Friendship Road (Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo Highway)-Inaugurated on February 13, 2001, this 250-kilometer highway, built mainly by the Indian Army’s Border Roads Organisation, serves as a strategic and commercial transport route.
      • Aims to connect North-East India and South Asia to Southeast Asia, facilitating trade and transportation.
    • India-Myanmar-Thailand Friendship Highway:
      • A 4-lane, 3200 km triangular highway connecting India, Myanmar, and Thailand.
      • Expected to be completed by 2016, the route starts from Guwahati in India, passes through Mandalay and Yangon in Myanmar, and extends to Mae Sot and Bangkok in Thailand.
      • Over 1,600 km of roads were built or improved in Myanmar as part of this initiative.
    • Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project:
      • A project aimed at connecting the Indian seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe seaport in Myanmar by sea.
      • Involves linking Sittwe seaport to Lashio in Myanmar through the Kaladan river boat route and connecting Lashio to Mizoram in India via road transport.
      • Enhances connectivity and trade by providing an alternative route for goods transport.

MHA seeks to pacify truckers protesting new hit-and-run law

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : TH

Transporters across India have initiated a nationwide strike protesting against the proposed Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), which includes a provision (Section 106) prescribing a maximum punishment of 10 years for rash and negligent driving in hit-and-run cases.

  • The strike began on January 1 and is set to last until January 30.

Key Highlights

  • Government’s Response:
    • The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) held a meeting with the All India Motor Transport Congress to address the concerns of transporters.
    • Union Home Secretary clarified that the new laws, including Section 106 of the BNS, have not been implemented yet.
    • The decision to invoke Section 106(2) will be made after consultation with the transport congress.
  • The central government said that the decision to increase the sentence to 10 years was influenced by Supreme Court observations.
  • Concerns and Opposition:
    • Transporters are particularly concerned about the increased punishment of 10 years for rash and negligent driving.
    • They argue that the government has not provided concrete assurances and express dissatisfaction with the lack of response to their earlier petitions.
    • The strike is perceived as a drivers’ movement, emphasizing the unorganised nature of drivers who often face blame in accidents.
    • The strike’s impact is reportedly felt nationwide, with significant disruptions in various states, including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, and southern states.
    • The strike has the potential to cause shortages in fuel and disrupt transportation services.
  • Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS) Amendments
    • The proposed Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS) introduces amendments to punishments for hit-and-run cases, particularly distinguishing between Section 106(1) and Section 106(2).
    • Individuals causing accidents may flee the scene due to fear of crowd attacks.
    • In such instances, if the person moves away and promptly calls the police, they can avoid the harsh punishment prescribed under Section 106(2) of “0-10 years.”
    • Instead, they would face charges under the milder Section 106(1), with a maximum sentence of “0-5 years.”
    • Supreme Court Guidance:
      • The Supreme Court’s stance in multiple cases emphasizes strict action against drivers who recklessly cause accidents resulting in fatalities and then flee the scene.
      • Reporting promptly to a police officer or magistrate about an accident caused by reckless driving aligns with the Supreme Court’s recommendations and ensures charges under Section 106(1).
    • Distinction Between Sections:
      • Section 106(1):
        • Prescribes a punishment of “0-5 years.”
        • Applies to rash or negligent acts not amounting to culpable homicide.
        • Offense is bailable.
        • In cases where a registered medical practitioner causes death during a medical procedure, the punishment includes imprisonment for up to two years and a fine.
      • Section 106(2):
        • Prescribes a more severe punishment of “0-10 years.”
        • Applies specifically to hit-and-run cases involving reckless driving.
        • Offense is non-bailable.
        • The offense involves escaping without reporting the incident to a police officer or magistrate promptly.
      • Comparison with Current IPC Section 304A:
        • Under the current Section 304A of the IPC (to be replaced by the BNS), the punishment for causing death by negligence is two years of imprisonment, a fine, or both.

The global nuclear order is under strain

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : TH

The establishment and maintenance of a legitimate global order require two crucial conditions: first, a convergence among major powers, and second, the successful presentation of outcomes as a global public good.

  • The Global Nuclear Order (GNO), formed during the Cold War, exemplifies these principles but is currently facing significant challenges.

Key Highlights

  • Lessons of the Cold War:
    • The GNO emerged during the Cold War, with the United States and the Soviet Union leading the Western and Socialist blocs, respectively.
    • The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 heightened the awareness of the dangers of nuclear conflict.
    • Both U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev recognized the need for bilateral mechanisms to prevent nuclear escalation and to curb the spread of nuclear weapons.
  • In response to the crisis, a secret back-channel between President Kennedy’s brother, Robert Kennedy, and Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin played a crucial role in resolving tensions.
  • This led to the establishment of the hotline in 1963, allowing direct communication between leaders.
  • Arms control negotiations followed, aiming to manage the nuclear arms race and maintain strategic stability.
  • To address the issue of proliferation, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. initiated multilateral negotiations in Geneva in 1965, resulting in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) opening for signature in 1968.
  • The NPT, initially endorsed by less than 60 parties, has evolved into a cornerstone of the global nuclear order with 191 adherents today.
  • Current Challenges to the GNO:
    • While the GNO was initially successful in creating mechanisms to prevent nuclear conflict and curb proliferation, it is now under strain.
    • The dynamics among major powers have shifted since the end of the Cold War, with emerging powers and geopolitical shifts complicating efforts for convergence.
    • Additionally, the effectiveness of the GNO is challenged by concerns about the equitable distribution of nuclear responsibilities, the development of new nuclear technologies, and the potential for regional conflicts to undermine global nuclear stability.
  • The Formation of the Nuclear Suppliers Group:
    • In 1975, the third element of the global nuclear order emerged when India, having not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), conducted a peaceful nuclear explosive (PNE) test.
    • Concerned major powers, including the U.S., U.S.S.R, U.K., Canada, France, Japan, and West Germany, convened in London to establish export controls.
    • This initiative, originally known as the London Club, later transformed into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), comprising 48 countries today.
    • The NSG aims to prevent the misuse of nuclear technology for PNEs and follows common guidelines for exporting nuclear materials, equipment, and technologies.
  • Successes and Challenges of the Global Nuclear Order:
    • The global nuclear order has demonstrated resilience on two fronts.
    • Firstly, the taboo against nuclear weapons has held since 1945, with debates on whether U.S.-U.S.S.R arms control processes or sheer luck contributed to humanity surviving 75 years of the nuclear age without catastrophic incidents.
    • Secondly, non-proliferation efforts have been relatively successful and the number of nuclear-armed states remained limited, with India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan joining the original five nuclear powers.
    • While arms control measures did not halt the U.S.-U.S.S.R. nuclear arms race, the dialogue and agreements during the Cold War managed to provide a semblance of control.
    • The two nuclear superpowers’ arsenals grew from 28,000 bombs in 1962 to over 65,000 bombs in the early 1980s but have since significantly declined, partially attributed to the end of the Cold War and the Soviet Union’s breakup.
  • Changing Nuclear Landscape in a Multipolar World:
    • The global nuclear landscape has transitioned from the bipolar dynamics of the Cold War to a multipolar reality.
    • The United States now contends with a resurgent China, marking a departure from the Cold War rivalry.
    • Unlike the past, the U.S. and China have closely intertwined economies, and China emerges as a formidable economic and technological rival.
    • The strategic competition extends to the South China and East China Seas, with China bolstering its naval and missile capabilities since the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996.
  • Impact on U.S.-Russia Treaties:
    • The evolving geopolitics have strained longstanding treaties between the U.S. and Russia.
    • The U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, citing Russian violations.
    • The New START agreement, the only remaining accord, faces expiration in 2026.
    • Verification meetings for New START were halted during the COVID-19 outbreak and have not resumed.
    • Strategic stability talks initiated in 2021 stalled following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about the future of arms control.
    • Both nations are exploring roles for more usable weapons, and Russia’s de-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) last year raises fears of potential nuclear testing.
    • Russian nuclear saber-rattling in response to NATO and U.S. actions in Ukraine revives nuclear concerns, challenging old definitions of strategic stability.
  • End of Cold War Non-Proliferation Consensus:
    • The Cold War consensus on non-proliferation has waned.
    • The U.S., historically pragmatic in its nuclear policy, turned a blind eye to Israel’s nuclear program in the 1960s-70s and China’s assistance to Pakistan in the 1980s.
    • Recent developments, such as the AUKUS deal involving Australia, the U.S., and the U.K., with concerns raised within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) community, reflect shifting dynamics and changing attitudes toward nuclear proliferation.
  • South Korea’s Nuclear Considerations:
    • During the 1970s, South Korea contemplated a nuclear weapons program, triggered by the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam.
    • France’s offer to supply a reprocessing plant was withdrawn under U.S. pressure in 1975-76, leading South Korea to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
    • However, recent polls reveal substantial public support, with 70% favoring the development of a national nuclear deterrent and 40% supporting the reintroduction of U.S. nuclear weapons (withdrawn in 1991) on South Korean territory.
  • S. Actions in Taiwan and Shifting Japanese Sentiment:
    • Between 1977 and 1988, the U.S. actively undermined Taiwan’s nuclear weapons program as part of the normalization of ties with China.
    • Despite strong anti-nuclear sentiment in Japan due to historical events, there is a noticeable shift, evidenced by Japan’s decision to double defense spending over the next five years.
  • Erosion of U.S. Extended Deterrence:
    • While the U.S.’s nuclear umbrella strengthened ties with European allies during the Cold War, changing domestic priorities have led the U.S. to look inward.
    • This shift raises concerns among its East Asian allies about the reliability of U.S. ‘extended deterrence’ guarantees.
    • Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan possess the technical capabilities to develop independent nuclear deterrents quickly if the political will aligns.
    • There is a growing belief that U.S. pragmatism may eventually lead to the acknowledgment that independent nuclear deterrent capabilities could be the most effective way to navigate regional rivalries, particularly with China.
  • Global Nuclear Order Under Strain:
    • The overall state of the Global Nuclear Order (GNO) appears increasingly uncertain.
    • The potential for East Asian nations to pursue independent nuclear capabilities challenges the traditional dynamics of nuclear non-proliferation and strategic stability.
    • The evolving geopolitical landscape in the region raises questions about the future of U.S. influence and its ability to uphold extended deterrence commitments.
    • As East Asian nations consider alternative security measures, the foundations of the GNO are becoming more tenuous.

What is Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)?

  • The NPT is an international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
  • It entered into force in 1970 and is considered a cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.
  • Key Principles:
    • The NPT divides the world into nuclear-armed states (recognized as the P5: U.S., Russia, China, UK, and France) and non-nuclear-armed states.
    • Non-nuclear-armed states commit not to acquire nuclear weapons, and nuclear-armed states commit to eventual disarmament.
    • The treaty recognizes the right of signatory nations to access and develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, such as energy generation and medical research.
    • The NPT encourages international cooperation in the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

What is Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)?

  • The NSG is a multinational group of countries that aims to control the export of materials, equipment, and technology that could contribute to nuclear weapons proliferation.
  • It was formed in response to concerns about the misuse of civilian nuclear technology for military purposes.
  • Key Principles:
    • NSG member countries adhere to guidelines for nuclear and nuclear-related exports, ensuring that such transfers are for peaceful purposes and do not contribute to nuclear weapons development.
    • NSG member states are expected to be parties to the NPT and adhere to its principles, reinforcing the commitment to preventing nuclear proliferation.
    • The group operates on the basis of consensus, with members consulting and making decisions collectively.

What is New START Agreement?

  • The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) is a bilateral treaty between the United States and Russia, aiming to limit and reduce their strategic nuclear arsenals.
  • It succeeded the original START treaty and entered into force in 2011.
  • Key Provisions:
    • The treaty places limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems (intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers) that each party can possess.
    • New START includes robust verification measures, such as data exchanges, notifications, and on-site inspections, to ensure compliance with the agreed-upon limits.
    • The treaty enhances transparency and confidence-building measures between the U.S. and Russia, fostering stability and reducing the risk of misunderstandings.

An ‘India out’ plan that could impact the Maldives

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : TH

The Maldives’ decision to revoke a joint hydrographic survey agreement with India has caused dismay in Indian media and strategic circles.

  • The agreement, signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 visit, was considered a symbol of strong India-Maldives defense ties.
  • The move came after the Maldives formally requested the withdrawal of Indian military presence from its territory in December 2023, reflecting a deterioration in bilateral relations.

Key Highlights

  • The revocation of the hydrography pact and the request for the withdrawal of Indian military presence indicate a significant erosion of trust between India and the Maldives.
  • Notably, the Maldives skipped the Colombo Security Conclave in December, further signaling a distancing from regional defense engagements.
  • Since the election of President Mohamed Muizzu in November 2023, there has been a deliberate effort by the Maldives to create distance from New Delhi.
  • The decision to terminate the hydrography pact is viewed as an assertion of autonomy, but the underlying motive appears to be a shift towards closer ties with China.
  • China’s Influence and Maritime Surveys:
    • The Muizzu administration’s refusal to renew the hydrography pact is seen as aligning with China, rather than a move to balance ties with India.
    • The termination of the agreement is believed to facilitate China’s marine surveys in the surrounding seas by removing Indian hydrographic ships from Maldivian waters.
  • Hydrography’s Dual Nature:
    • Hydrographic data, collected from the seas, possesses a dual nature, serving both civilian and military purposes.
    • While advancing non-military objectives like navigational safety and environmental monitoring, the same data can be used for military aims, including surveillance of coastal installations and war-fighting assets.
  • China’s Unique Approach:
    • China distinguishes itself by strategically leveraging marine and seabed surveys to advance its geopolitical objectives.
    • The country deploys oceanographic research vessels, like the Shi Yan class and Yuan Wang series, extensively in the Indian Ocean.
    • These vessels, often overshadowed by China’s naval presence, play a critical role in supporting the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s maritime strategy, underscoring China’s unique emphasis on marine surveys and reconnaissance.
  • Strategic Role in Antisubmarine Warfare:
    • Indian observers emphasize that China’s ocean surveys significantly contribute to enhancing its antisubmarine warfare capabilities.
    • Mapping ocean temperature profiles, studying currents, and other oceanic phenomena aids in improving sonar performance and detecting enemy submarines.
    • The insights gained also contribute to developing systems for submarine evasion and refining tactics for littoral combat.
  • Indian Presence as a Potential Hindrance:
    • India’s hydrographic ships in the region, however, pose a potential obstacle to China’s oceanographic surveys.
    • The Indian Navy’s capability to track subsurface sensor activity of foreign ships is a concern for Chinese hydrographers, as they fear interference with China’s marine survey efforts in the waters of South Asian states.
    • Speculation in New Delhi revolves around a potential Chinese plan to establish a naval base in the Maldives.
    • Past proposals, such as the 2018 plan for an ocean observatory in Makunudhoo Atoll, sparked concerns about potential military applications, including a submarine base.
    • While there is no current evidence of China reviving this proposal, recent developments suggest that the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out, prompting strategic considerations in the region.
  • Maldives’ Apprehensions:
    • The Maldives expresses concerns over India’s hydrographic activities, suspecting them to be a form of intelligence collection.
    • The Maldives’ reservations stem from a legal gap governing hydrography and military surveys, creating uncertainties about the scope of foreign maritime agencies conducting surveys in its waters.
    • The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) does not explicitly empower coastal states to regulate hydrographic or military surveys beyond their territorial seas.
    • This legal gap allows foreign maritime agencies to conduct hydrographic surveys freely in the seas outside a coastal state’s territorial waters, contributing to the Maldives’ unease.
  • Understanding Hydrography’s Dual Nature:
    • Hydrography, despite its outwardly scientific nature, serves dual purposes.
    • It caters to the demands of marine ecologists, scientists, and the maritime industry, as well as military strategists and national security planners.
    • The distinction between civilian and military objectives is often blurred in hydrographic activities.
  • Indian Navy’s Exemplary Record:
    • While Maldives expresses concerns, the Indian Navy, with an exemplary track record, has conducted hydrographic surveys in its neighboring regions.
    • India has provided hydrographic assistance to Mauritius since the 1990s, demonstrating a commitment to capacity-building and skill development in hydrography.
  • Partnership with India for Maritime Security:
    • Despite concerns, the article suggests that the best approach for the Maldives to enhance maritime awareness and security is through a partnership with India.
    • The piece emphasizes that India’s hydrographic activities are not aimed at weaponizing ocean surveys, and the eagerness for a strategic alliance with China, driven by political considerations, might have adverse consequences for the Maldives.
    • Recognizing the unique role of hydrography and the potential for mutually beneficial cooperation is key to regional maritime stability.

About the Maldives

  • The Maldives is an archipelagic country located in the Indian Ocean, southwest of Sri Lanka and India.
  • It consists of 26 atolls, which are made up of more than 1,000 coral islands.
  • The capital of the Maldives is Malé, situated on the island of the same name.
  • Other significant cities include Addu City, Fuvahmulah, and Kulhudhuffushi.
  • The population of the Maldives is around 521,000 people.
  • Dhivehi is the official language of the Maldives.
  • Islam is the official and predominant religion in the Maldives.
  • Economy:
    • Tourism is a major contributor to the Maldives’ economy.
    • The country is known for its luxurious resorts, coral reefs, and pristine beaches.
    • Fishing, particularly tuna fishing, is another significant economic activity.
    • The Maldivian economy is vulnerable to climate change and rising sea levels.
  • The Maldivian Rufiyaa (MVR) is the official currency.
  • The Maldives gained independence from British protection in 1965.
  • The Maldives is a member of international organizations, including the United Nations (UN), the Commonwealth, and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).