CURRENT AFFAIRS - 29/04/2024

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CURRENT AFFAIRS – 29/04/2024

CURRENT AFFAIRS – 29/04/2024

NHRC accreditation status faces review in Geneva this week

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : The Hindu

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) of India is gearing up to defend its human rights processes at a crucial meeting in Geneva.

The meeting, scheduled for May 1, is organized by the Sub-Committee on Accreditation (SCA) of the Global Alliance of National Human Rights Institutions (GANHRI).
This meeting holds significant importance as it will determine whether NHRC retains its “A status” within the alliance, impacting its ability to vote at the UN Human Rights Council and other UNGA bodies.

Key Highlights

Background and Concerns
- NHRC’s accreditation status was put on hold in 2023 due to various concerns regarding its composition and procedures.
- The issues highlighted included the presence of police personnel in human rights investigations, lack of gender and minority representation, and doubts over the body’s independence from government interference.
- This was not the first time NHRC faced such scrutiny; a similar situation arose in 2016, which was resolved after a year.
- Past Accreditation and Criticisms
  - India has been accredited since 1999 and has retained its “A ranking” in 2006 and 2011.
  - However, the NHRC’s status was deferred in 2016 and restored after a year.
  - The SCA’s criticism in March 2023 specifically targeted NHRC’s failure to ensure independence from government influence, citing concerns over the involvement of police officers in its investigative processes.
- NHRC’s Response
  - In response to the criticism, NHRC emphasized the effectiveness of including government officials, such as its Secretary-General and CEO, Bharat Lal. The presence of officials like Lal, a former Gujarat-cadre IAS officer, is deemed beneficial by NHRC.
  - NHRC also addressed the lack of gender representation by appointing another woman, VijayaBharathiSayani, in December 2023.
- NHRC Composition and Diversity Concerns
  - The composition of the NHRC has come under scrutiny for its lack of representation from India’s largest minority religions.
  - While ex-officio members like the Chairperson of the National Commission for Minorities, Iqbal Singh Lalpura, are included, the absence of a representative from these minority groups has been highlighted.
  - Additionally, concerns have been raised regarding the political affiliations of NHRC members, with five out of ten members having ties to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or RashtriyaSwayamsevakSangh (RSS).
  - Response to Diversity Concerns
    - NHRC officials have refuted claims of bias in the committee’s composition, asserting that Rajiv Jain, a member, qualifies as a minority due to his Jain background.
    - They emphasize that all members are selected through India’s legislative and constitutional processes, which also involve opposition leaders in the selection process.

Note: The SCA has recommended the removal of accreditation for certain countries, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, Niger, and Russia, due to developments in those nations.

About the Global Alliance of National Human Rights Institutions (GANHRI)

The Global Alliance of National Human Rights Institutions (GANHRI) is a global network of National Human Rights Institutions (NHRIs) that plays a crucial role in promoting and protecting human rights worldwide.
Established in 1993, GANHRI was formerly known as the International Coordinating Committee (ICC) of National Human Rights Institutions.
GANHRI aims to promote the role of NHRIs globally by providing a platform for members to interact, exchange information, and engage with international organizations.
Functions of GANHRI:
- Engagement with International Bodies:
  - GANHRI facilitates and supports the engagement of NHRIs with the United Nations Rights Councils, Treaty Bodies, and other international organizations.
- Cooperation and Information Sharing:
  - It encourages cooperation and information sharing among NHRIs to enhance their effectiveness in promoting and protecting human rights.
- Capacity Building:
  - GANHRI collaborates with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to build the capacity of NHRIs.
- Accreditation:
  - GANHRI undertakes the accreditation of NHRIs based on the Paris Principles, which are international benchmarks for NHRI accreditation.
  - Accreditation levels include “A” for full compliance, “B” for partial compliance, and “C” for non-compliance with the Paris Principles.
- Membership and Structure:
  - GANHRI has 120 NHRIs as current members and observers, making it one of the largest human rights networks globally.
  - It consists of four regional networks of NHRIs in Africa, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, and Europe.
  - The Sub-Committee on Accreditation (SCA) manages the peer review process for initial accreditation and re-accreditation every five years, ensuring compliance with the Paris Principles.
- UN Human Rights Collaboration:
  - GANHRI collaborates with the UN Human Rights, which acts as the secretariat for GANHRI, supporting the establishment and strengthening of NHRIs worldwide.
  - NHRIs accredited with ‘A’ status are eligible for fellowships at the UN Human Rights Office to enhance their knowledge and experience with the UN human rights system.

Note: As of December 2023, GANHRI is composed of 120 members: 88 “A” status accredited NHRIs and 32 “B” status accredited NHRIs

About the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC)

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) of India is an independent statutory body established in 1993 under the Protection of Human Rights Act, which was later amended in 2006.
The NHRC serves as a watchdog for human rights in India, overseeing various aspects related to human rights protection and promotion.
Members:
- The NHRC consists of the chairperson and five members (excluding the ex-officio members).
- The Chairperson of the NHRC is typically a person who has served as the Chief Justice of India or a Judge of the Supreme Court.
- One member who is, or has been, a Judge of the Supreme Court of India and one member who is, or has been, the Chief Justice of a High Court.
- Three Members, out of which at least one shall be a woman to be appointed from amongst persons having knowledge of, or practical experience in, matters relating to human rights.
- In addition, the Chairpersons of National Commissions viz., National Commission for Scheduled Castes, National Commission for Scheduled Tribes, National Commission for Women, National Commission for Minorities, National Commission for Backward Classes, National Commission for Protection of Child Rights; and the Chief Commissioner for Persons with Disabilities serve as ex officio members.
- Note: The sitting Judge of the Supreme Court or sitting Chief Justice of any High Court can be appointed only after the consultation with the Chief Justice of India.
Appointment of Members:
- A Selection Committee recommends candidates to the President, comprising the Prime Minister, Speaker of Lok Sabha, Union Home Minister, Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha, and Leaders of the Opposition in both Houses of Parliament.
Mandate:
- The NHRC is mandated to inquire into complaints of human rights violations, study international human rights treaties, make recommendations for effective implementation, and investigate complaints either suo-moto or upon receiving petitions.
Monitoring and Recommendations:
- The NHRC can intervene in judicial processes involving human rights violations, visit prisons and detention centers to assess living conditions, review constitutional provisions safeguarding human rights, and suggest corrective measures.
Promotion of Human Rights:
- The NHRC promotes research in human rights, raises awareness through various media, encourages NGOs working in the field, and recommends preventive measures to the Central and State Governments.
Reporting:
- The NHRC submits an annual report to the President, which is then presented to both Houses of Parliament, ensuring transparency and accountability.

Towards green growth

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : The Hindu

The latest Monetary Policy Report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), included in its April Bulletin, highlights the increasing importance of addressing “extreme weather events” and “climate shocks” in monetary policy considerations.

These events not only impact food inflation but also affect the broader economy’s financial stability by influencing the natural rate of interest, a key lever for maintaining economic output and controlling inflation.

Key Highlights

Integration of Climate Change in Economic Models
- The report mentions the utilization of a “New-Keynesian model” that incorporates a “physical climate risk damage function” to estimate the macroeconomic impact of climate change compared to a scenario without climate change.
- RBI warns of a potential 9% decrease in long-term economic output by 2050 if no climate mitigation policies are implemented.
- It cautions that entrenched inflation hysteresis could lead to inflation expectations becoming unanchored, necessitating higher interest rates to control inflation, resulting in further output loss.
Importance of Green Taxonomy
- The RBI and the Finance Ministry could draw inspiration from initiatives in advanced economies, such as the European Central Bank’s development of a green taxonomy for the Eurozone’s economic value chain.
- A green taxonomy serves as a framework to assess the sustainability of economic activities.
- The ASEAN region offers a model of a layered green taxonomy, continually updated with sectoral views to reflect sustainable trajectories.
Steps Toward a Sustainable Future
- While initiatives like issuing Sovereign Green Bonds and allowing Foreign Institutional Investors to participate in green government securities are commendable, the RBI must conduct a comprehensive assessment of the quantitative and qualitative impact of climate change on economic and financial stability.
- Administrative consultation is essential to develop a layered green taxonomy tailored to India’s diverse developmental pathways, aiming to mitigate transitional risks to the financial system during the shift towards sustainability.

What is Keynesian model?

The Keynesian model is an economic theory named after the British economist John Maynard Keynes.
It proposes that in the short run, especially during economic downturns, total spending in an economy (aggregate demand) plays a crucial role in determining output and employment levels.
Key components of the Keynesian model include:
- Aggregate Demand:
  - Keynes argued that fluctuations in aggregate demand, rather than supply-side factors, are the primary drivers of economic fluctuations.
  - When aggregate demand falls short of the economy’s potential output, it can lead to unemployment and underutilization of resources.
- Government Intervention:
  - Keynes advocated for government intervention in the economy to stabilize output and employment levels during periods of economic downturns.
  - This intervention could take the form of fiscal policy (government spending and taxation) and monetary policy (central bank interventions to influence interest rates and money supply).
- Multiplier Effect:
  - Keynes introduced the concept of the multiplier effect, which suggests that an initial increase in spending (such as government spending) leads to a larger increase in overall economic activity.
  - This occurs as the additional income generated by the initial spending is re-spent by households and businesses, creating a chain reaction of increased demand and output.
- Underemployment Equilibrium:
  - Keynes argued that economies could remain in a state of underemployment equilibrium, where resources are not fully utilized, due to insufficient aggregate demand.
  - In such situations, he advocated for policies to stimulate demand and boost economic activity.
- The New-Keynesian model builds upon the Keynesian framework but incorporates modern economic theories and techniques.
  - One aspect of the New-Keynesian model involves the inclusion of “physical climate risk damage functions.”
  - These functions quantify the potential economic damages resulting from climate change-related events, such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and disruptions to ecosystems.
  - Incorporating physical climate risk damage functions into the New-Keynesian model allows economists to analyze the potential economic impacts of climate change and assess the effectiveness of policy responses, such as carbon pricing, adaptation measures, and investments in clean energy technologies.
  - By integrating climate-related risks into economic models, policymakers and researchers can better understand the complex interactions between climate change, economic activity, and policy interventions.

A three-dimensional view of the Israel-Iran crisis

(General Studies- Paper II0

Source : The Hindu

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, has consistently identified Iran as the primary threat to Israel’s security.

His opposition to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and his portrayal of himself as a strong leader capable of countering the Iranian threat have been central to his political identity.
However, during his tenure, Iran launched a significant attack on Israel on April 14, marking the first direct assault by a state actor in over three decades.
This event underscored Iran’s growing aggression in the region and its willingness to challenge Israel’s deterrence.

Key Highlights

Israel’s Response and Criticism
- Despite Iran’s provocation, Israel’s response to the attack was described as “feeble” by its own National Security Minister.
- This perceived weakness further exacerbated concerns about Israel’s security and its ability to effectively deter Iranian aggression.
- Additionally, Israel’s dependency on the United States for security assistance became more apparent in the aftermath of the attack.
Biden Administration’s Approach
- Since Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 7, 2022, the Biden administration has prioritized preventing the Israel-Hamas conflict from escalating into a broader regional war.
- President Joe Biden expressed support for Israel’s military actions in Gaza while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic efforts to maintain stability in the region.
- However, the administration faced challenges in exerting influence over Iran and preventing a potential confrontation between Israel and Iran.
- Recognizing that a war with Iran and its proxies would not align with American strategic interests, President Biden informed Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any Israeli retaliation against Iran.
Escalation of Shadow War between Israel and Iran
- For years, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war, marked by covert operations and airstrikes targeting each other’s interests.
- Israel has conducted over 400 airstrikes in Syria alone, primarily targeting Iranian assets.
- Additionally, Israel has executed operations within Iran itself, including the assassination of senior nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 2020.
- Despite Israel’s aggressive actions, Iran’s responses have been relatively restrained, leading Israel to believe it could act with impunity, gradually eroding Iran’s deterrence capabilities.
- Israel’s Escalation Post-October 7
  - Following an attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7, Israel intensified its shadow war activities.
  - Iran’s response remained subdued.
  - Subsequently, when Israeli intelligence suggested the presence of top IRGC commander Mohammed Reza Zahedi at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Israel carried out another strike.
  - However, Israel did not anticipate a direct Iranian attack in response to the Damascus strike.
- Netanyahu’s Dilemma and Strategic Realities
  - The Iranian retaliation has placed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a dilemma.
  - While Netanyahu has consistently favored a forceful approach against Tehran, the circumstances surrounding Iran’s strike were not conducive to his plans.
  - Netanyahu’s strategy has never been to confront Iran alone but rather to rely on American leadership, participation, and support.
  - However, President Biden’s assurance that the U.S. would not join Israeli retaliation limited Netanyahu’s options.
  - Despite the temptation to test America’s resolve by engaging in a direct conflict with Iran, Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza and the need for U.S. support in that offensive compelled Netanyahu to opt for a symbolic strike within Iran, targeting a radar system, as reported by American media.
  - This restrained response marked a rare victory for the Biden administration in preventing a regional war but was viewed as inadequate by Israel, as it did little to enhance its deterrence posture.
- Iran’s Strategic Patience and Changing Calculus
  - Iran has historically exhibited strategic patience in its ongoing shadow war with Israel, maintaining a long-term perspective on its regional influence despite suffering losses in senior officers and scientists due to Israeli strikes.
  - Despite these setbacks, Iran’s nuclear program continues to advance, and its proxies in the region continue to strengthen.
  - However, the Israeli bombing of its embassy annex appears to have prompted a shift in Tehran’s strategic thinking.
  - Iran has decided to retaliate against Israel’s persistent strikes on its officials, signaling a change in its approach.
  - Factors Influencing Iran’s Strategy
    - Several factors contribute to Iran’s altered strategy.
    - Iran has strengthened its strategic ties with Russia and China, with the latter primarily focused on economic relations while the former involves a multifaceted partnership, particularly evident in Iran’s provision of drones to Russia for its conflict with Ukraine.
    - Additionally, Iran has assessed that the United States is reluctant to engage in prolonged conflicts in the Middle East, especially with China and Russia challenging American leadership globally.
  - Israeli Challenges and International Backlash
    - Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza has not yielded the desired results, as the objectives of dismantling Hamas, releasing hostages, and bolstering deterrence remain unfulfilled.
    - Israel’s use of excessive force in Gaza has sparked international condemnation, leading to a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice.
    - Iran perceives Israel’s weakened position in the region, compounded by wavering U.S. security commitments, as an opportunity to challenge the status quo.
  - Iran’s Bold Actions and Implications
    - Iran’s decision to openly attack Israel, despite collective defense efforts from the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, demonstrates Tehran’s confidence in its risk assessment.
    - Iran has previously launched attacks against U.S. allies, including Saudi Arabia and American military installations in Iraq, with minimal consequences.
    - The April 14 attack on Israel marks a significant escalation in Iran’s actions, highlighting a new strategic reality in the Middle East where Iran operates with impunity.

The significance of carrier aviation

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : The Hindu

On March 5, both aircraft carriers of the Indian Navy, INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant, demonstrated “twin carrier operations,” exhibiting a capability possessed by only a select few nations.

During the showcase, MiG-29K fighter jets simultaneously took off from and landed on both carriers.
This demonstration highlighted India’s prowess in naval operations and its ability to conduct complex maneuvers at sea.

Key Highlights

Significance of INS Vikrant
- INS Vikrant, one of the carriers involved in the twin carrier operations, holds immense significance as it is India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier.
- Commissioned in September 2022, INS Vikrant was designed and constructed domestically, representing a significant milestone in India’s warship-building capabilities.
- The carrier has been fully operationalized and seamlessly integrated into the Indian Navy’s operational cycle in a remarkably short period.
Development of Indigenous Aircraft Carrier
- The inception of the Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC)-I project, later named Vikrant, dates back to 1999, with critical decisions made during 2005-2006.
- Notably, the decision to develop warship-grade steel domestically marked a pivotal moment in India’s warship-building endeavors.
- Collaborative efforts between the Steel Authority of India, the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), and the Indian Navy led to the development of DMR-249 steel, which is now utilized for constructing all warships in the country.
- Innovations and Processes in Shipbuilding
  - The construction of INS Vikrant introduced various new processes and innovations to India’s shipbuilding industry.
  - Notably, the introduction of 3-D modeling in 2002 revolutionized the design and construction phases.
  - A joint team comprising personnel from the Navy’s Warship Design Bureau and Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL) commenced work on the carrier, laying its keel in 2009 and launching it into water in 2013.
  - Subsequently, extensive user acceptance trials were conducted between August 2021 and July 2022 before the carrier’s commissioning.
- Impact on Shipbuilding Industry
  - The development and construction of INS Vikrant have not only bolstered India’s naval capabilities but also brought significant advancements to the country’s shipbuilding industry at large.
  - The project’s success has led to the adoption of new technologies, processes, and materials, enhancing India’s self-reliance in naval defense and fostering innovation in the shipbuilding sector.
- Composition and Specifications of INS Vikrant
  - INS Vikrant, stands as an engineering marvel boasting impressive specifications.
  - With a total area exceeding 12,450 m2, equivalent to about two and a half hockey fields, the 262m long and 62m wide ship is powered by four General Electric LM2500 engines generating 88 MW of power, enabling a maximum speed of 28 Knots and an endurance of 7,500 nautical miles.
  - Constructed at a cost of around ₹20,000 crore with 76% indigenous content, the carrier features approximately 2,200 compartments, accommodating a crew of around 1,600, including specialized cabins for women officers and sailors.
  - It houses two galleys capable of preparing 4,500-5,000 meals daily, equipped with advanced chapati making machines, large cooking boilers, combi-steamers, dosa machines, and ovens for various bakery items.
  - Employment Generation and Economic Impact
    - The construction of INS Vikrant has significant economic implications, with shipbuilding having one of the highest employment multipliers.
    - Vikrant alone engaged approximately 500 MSMEs, 12,000 employees from ancillary industries, and 2,000 CSL employees, as highlighted in the Economic Survey 2022-23.
  - Capabilities of INS Vikrant
    - INS Vikrant is capable of operating an air wing of 30 aircraft, including MiG-29K fighter jets, Kamov-31 and MH-60R multi-role helicopters, as well as indigenous Advanced Light Helicopters and Light Combat Aircraft (Navy).
    - It utilizes the STOBAR (Short Take-Off but Arrested Recovery) method for launching and recovering aircraft, featuring a ski-jump for launching and three ‘arrester wires’ for recovery.
    - The carrier’s flight deck is equipped with independent lighting systems for bad weather and night operations, facilitating precision landing of aircraft.
  - Legacy and Future of Indian Aircraft Carriers
    - India has a rich history of operating aircraft carriers, with INS Vikrant being the first carrier built domestically.
    - It is succeeded by INS Viraat and INS Vikramaditya, with negotiations underway for the purchase of 26 Rafale-M carrier jets from France due to the shortage of MiG-29Ks.
    - Additionally, India is developing an indigenous twin-engine deck-based fighter expected to be operational by 2034, ensuring continuity in the country’s carrier-based aviation capabilities.
  - Planning for the Future: IAC-II Proposal
    - The Indian Navy, recognizing the strategic importance of aircraft carriers in maritime operations, has initiated plans for the construction of a second Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC-II).
    - This proposal, resembling the design of INS Vikrant, aims to bolster India’s naval capabilities and ensure a credible presence across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
    - The Defence Procurement Board cleared the proposal in September, with further approval pending from the Defence Acquisition Council, expected post-elections.
    - Key Features of IAC-II
      - The IAC-II, displacing 45,000 tonnes, will feature modifications and incorporate newer technologies compared to its predecessor.
      - To be manufactured by Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), the construction of IAC-II is estimated to take around eight to ten years, leveraging the existing design, engines, and propulsion systems.
      - Notably, earlier plans for a larger 65,000-tonne carrier have been shelved due to technological complexities, cost implications, and extended timelines.
    - IAC-II’s Role
      - Contrary to common perception, the proposed IAC-II is not intended to serve as India’s third aircraft carrier immediately.
      - Instead, it will primarily serve as a timely replacement for INS Vikramaditya once commissioned.
      - The lifecycle of INS Vikramaditya will eventually come to an end, necessitating the construction of another carrier.
      - However, until then, the Indian Navy will operate with two aircraft carriers in operation, aligning with its envisioned force structure around three carriers.
    - Global Trends in Aircraft Carrier Development
      - Globally, there is a renewed interest in aircraft carriers, evidenced by several nations investing in carriers of varying sizes and capabilities.
      - The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and Japan are all advancing their carrier programs, with China notably accelerating its carrier-building efforts.
      - From commissioning its first carrier in 2012 to announcing plans for its fourth, China’s pace in carrier development is unprecedented.
    - Significance of Carriers in Naval Warfare
      - The debate surrounding carriers versus submarines persists, with each possessing distinct advantages in naval warfare.
      - While submarines offer stealth and strategic deterrence capabilities, carriers provide significant power projection and command-and-control capabilities.
      - Despite the evolving threat landscape with advancements in targeting missiles and drones, carrier aviation remains vital for naval operations in the foreseeable future.

In Image: Aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant in formation

India’s Chinese import bill up 2.3 times in 15 years

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : The Hindu

India’s imports from China surged to over $101 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, marking a significant increase from approximately $70 billion recorded in 2018-19.

According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), China’s share of India’s industrial goods imports has risen from 21% to 30% over a span of 15 years.
The study reveals that Chinese imports have grown at a rate 2.3 times faster than India’s total imports during the same period.

Key Highlights

Diversification Across Sectors
- Contrary to common perception, China is not only a dominant supplier in the electronics sector but also leads in eight major industrial sectors, including machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and textiles.
- This diversification highlights the broader impact of Chinese imports across India’s industrial landscape, contributing significantly to various sectors beyond electronics.
Concerns Over Trade Deficit
- The escalating trade deficit with China is a significant concern highlighted in the GTRI report.
- While India’s exports to China have remained stagnant at around $16 billion annually between 2018-2019 and 2023-24, imports have surged, resulting in a substantial cumulative trade deficit exceeding $387 billion over six years.
Export Dynamics
- Despite the trade deficit, India’s exports to China have witnessed growth in certain sectors.
- The Commerce Ministry reported an increase in exports to China across 90 principal commodities out of a total of 161 items shipped to the country.
- These commodities, including iron ore, telecom instruments, and electronic components, accounted for 67.7% of India’s export basket to China.
Import Statistics
- India’s total merchandise imports reached $677.2 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, with China accounting for 15% or $101.8 billion worth of goods.
- Notably, $100 billion of imports from China comprised major industrial product categories, constituting 30% of such imports, with some sectors witnessing China’s share exceeding 70%.
- Dependency Across Various Sectors
  - China’s dominance in India’s imports was evident, with approximately 42% of textile and clothing imports, 40% of machinery imports, and 38.4% of electronics, telecom, and electrical products imports originating from China during the period.
  - The study also revealed China’s substantial contribution to India’s imports in other sectors, including 29.2% in chemicals and pharmaceuticals, 25.8% in plastic products, and 23.3% in the automobile sector.
  - However, there was comparatively lower dependency on China in the case of iron, steel, and base metal imports, with only a 17.6% share of inflows originating from China.
- Critical Need for Research and Development
  - GTRI emphasized the critical need for focused research and development, particularly in the areas of capital goods and machinery, where half of the imports from China are concentrated.
  - Additionally, there is a pressing need for upgrading industries related to intermediate goods like organic chemicals, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and plastics, which collectively represent 37% of imports.
- Strategic Implications
  - The study underscored the profound strategic implications of India’s dependency on Chinese imports, affecting not only economic but also national security dimensions.
  - It advocated for a reassessment of India’s import strategies to mitigate economic risks, bolster domestic industries, and reduce dependency on single-country imports, particularly from geopolitical competitors like China.
- Rise in Imports Due to Chinese Firms Operating in India
  - With Chinese firms entering the Indian market, the GTRI study anticipated a sharp rise in India’s industrial product imports, as these firms may prefer sourcing most requirements from their parent firms in China.
  - The study highlighted that India had exported $10 billion worth of goods to China in 2005 and enjoyed a trade surplus with its neighbor between 2003 and 2005.
  - However, after 2005, Chinese goods dominated trade flows, leading to a steady increase in the trade deficit for India.

Note: GTRI is a research organization that aims to create high-quality and jargon-free outputs for Governments and Industry on trade, technology, climate change and other important issues.

Anticyclones, hanging even now over India, link warming to heat

(General Studies- Paper I and III)

Source : The Hindu

The intricacies of how global warming manifests in local weather highlight the necessity of modeling on a global scale while predicting outcomes on a local level.

The declining phase of the strong El Niño event in 2023 resulted in expected warm temperatures worldwide.
However, cooler temperatures prevailed from Pakistan across India to West Bengal throughout March 2023, despite record-breaking temperatures elsewhere.

Key Highlights

Local Features Modulated by Global Warming
- Global warming contributes to the development of unique local features that influence heat waves amidst cooler background temperatures.
- Heat waves in India during the recent season have drawn particular attention due to the concurrent general elections.
- Role of Anticyclonic Circulations
  - The presence of persistent anticyclonic circulations over the North Indian Ocean has been identified as a key factor driving unusual rainfall patterns in regions like Odisha.
  - Anticyclones are characterized by clockwise wind movements and sinking air, leading to the formation of high-pressure heat domes, potentially exacerbating heat waves.
  - These anticyclonic circulations also played a role in historic events such as the Dubai floods of April 17.
- Anticyclones persist over the North Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent, indicating ongoing influences on local weather patterns.
Association of Anticyclones with Heat
- During the pre-monsoon season, the upper-level Indian Easterly Jet (IEJ) forms across the Arabian Sea, peninsular India, and the Bay of Bengal, intersecting with a westerly jet further north.
- This interaction can generate anticyclonic patterns over the Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent.
- The easterly and westerly jets are seasonal features, with the westerly jet shifting northward during the monsoon season while the IEJ dominates over the Indian subcontinent.
- A strong anticyclone during the pre-monsoon season can lead to dry and hot weather in many parts of India, while a weaker anticyclone results in milder conditions.
Amplification of Heat Waves
- Heat waves are typical during India’s pre-monsoon season, and accurate prediction and early warning systems are crucial for mitigating their impact.
- Understanding the underlying factors influencing heat wave duration, intensity, and frequency is essential for identifying vulnerable areas and timely interventions.
- The record warmth experienced in 2023 exceeded expectations, suggesting factors beyond the superposition of El Niño effects on global warming.
- However, the impact of El Niño on the IEJ during its pre-monsoon phase tends to strengthen and prolong anticyclones, contributing to more intense and prolonged heat waves.
- Therefore, the heat wave season in 2023 reflects both the warming effects of El Niño and additional amplification due to unexplained warming trends observed that year.
- The prevailing background conditions of cooler seasonal temperatures coupled with a robust and persistent anticyclone are critical for accurate weather predictions and early warning systems.
- Understanding these conditions allows meteorological departments to refine predictions and issue timely warnings accordingly.
Stages of Early Warnings
- Ready-Set-Go System: Accurate early-warning systems follow a three-step approach known as the ‘ready-set-go’ system, established under the ‘Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions’ project of the World Climate Research Program under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
- India actively participates in this project and has made significant strides in enhancing prediction accuracy.
- Ready:
  - The ‘ready’ stage provides a seasonal outlook, utilizing background conditions such as global warming and El Niño to enhance the accuracy of longer-lead forecasts.
  - This step enables the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA), local agencies, and governments to prepare their disaster response systems accordingly.
- Set:
  - Subseasonal predictions, spanning weeks two to four, contribute to the ‘set’ stage.
  - During this phase, resource allocations and identification of potential hotspots are conducted to ensure disaster preparedness is optimized and resources, including personnel, are strategically positioned.
- Go:
  - The ‘go’ stage is based on short- and medium-range forecasts (days 1-10).
  - At this point, active disaster management protocols are implemented, encompassing rescue efforts, hydration centers, heat shelters, and other necessary measures.
- Preparedness and Recovery
  - India’s prediction system and early warning systems have shown continuous improvement, with the NDMA effectively incorporating these details into its operational framework.
  - Challenges remain in building resilience for the future, particularly in accurately predicting weather trajectories at every location across India.
  - Efforts to develop predictions at 10-year timescales are underway and showing promise.
  - Coordination from the national level down to local neighborhoods, coupled with early warnings ranging from days to a decade, are gradually taking shape.
  - Comprehensive training and engagement efforts are necessary at all levels of government and society to ensure sustained success in disaster preparedness and response.

Understanding: Cyclones and Anticyclones

Cyclones and anticyclones are two types of atmospheric circulations characterized by the movement of air masses and associated weather patterns.
They are distinguished by their direction of rotation and the behavior of the air within them.
Cyclones:
- Cyclones are regions of low atmospheric pressure characterized by inward spiraling winds that rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
- In a cyclone, air converges at the center and rises, creating clouds, precipitation, and potentially stormy weather conditions.
- Cyclones are associated with inclement weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, strong winds, and sometimes tornadoes.
- Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons depending on their location, are intense cyclonic storms that form over warm ocean waters and can cause significant damage to coastal areas.
Anticyclones:
- Anticyclones are regions of high atmospheric pressure characterized by outward spiraling winds that rotate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
- In an anticyclone, air descends at the center, creating stable and generally fair weather conditions with clear skies and light winds.
- Anticyclones are associated with calm weather, such as sunny days and light winds, as well as temperature inversions, which can lead to fog and smog in some cases.
- Anticyclones often bring dry conditions, but they can also lead to prolonged periods of drought or heatwaves depending on their location and duration.