CURRENT AFFAIRS - 27/12/2023

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CURRENT AFFAIRS – 27/12/2023

CURRENT AFFAIRS – 27/12/2023

Women participation in NREGS continues to rise

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : The Indian Express

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) has witnessed a historic high in women’s participation during the current financial year 2023-24, as per official data.

The proportion of women person-days in the total workforce has reached an impressive 59.25%, marking a significant increase compared to the past decade.

Key Highlights

The trend reveals a steady rise in women’s involvement in MGNREGS, with rates of participation at 57.47% in 2022-23 and 54.82% in 2021-22.
Notably, the lowest participation recorded over the last ten financial years was in 2020-21 at 53.19%, coinciding with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Current Data Highlights:
- The data for the current financial year up to December 24, 2023, indicates that out of the total 238.62 crore person-days, women contributed 141.37 crore person-days, constituting 59.25% of the workforce.
- Comparatively, in 2022-23, women contributed 57.47% (169.90 crore person-days) of the total 295.66 crore person-days.
- Regional Disparities:
  - Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Goa have shown exceptionally high women participation rates, exceeding 70%.
  - Kerala leads with an impressive 89% participation rate.
  - In contrast, northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have struggled to reach 40% or even lower in women’s participation over the years.
- Outlook and Future Expectations:
  - The upward trajectory in women’s participation suggests a positive trend in the rural job guarantee scheme.
  - While the data is based on information available until December 24, 2023, there may be marginal changes by the end of the financial year in March 2024.
  - The encouraging figures signify progress in gender inclusivity and empowerment in rural employment initiatives.
- State-wise Analysis of NREGS Participation Rates:
  - In the fiscal year 2023-24, five states/UTs recorded the lowest women participation rates under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS):
    - Jammu and Kashmir (30.47%), Lakshadweep (38.24%), Uttar Pradesh (42.39%), Madhya Pradesh (42.50%), and Maharashtra (43.76%).
    - Notably, three of these regions have shown an increase in women’s participation during the current financial year: Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Lakshadweep.
    - Uttar Pradesh witnessed an increase from 37.87% in 2022-23 to 42.39% in 2023-24 in women’s participation.
    - Lakshadweep saw a notable rise from 26.67% to 38.24%, while Madhya Pradesh increased from 41.80% to 42.50%.
  - Overall NREGS Data:
    - In the financial year 2023-24, a total of 5.38 crore families availed NREGS till December 24, 2023, a decrease from 6.18 crore in 2022-23 and 7.25 crore in 2021-22.
    - The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation indicates a positive trajectory in the female Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) at the national level.
    - In rural areas, the LFPR increased from 18.2% in 2017-18 to 30.5% in 2022-23 (July-June), reflecting a substantial rise in women’s involvement in the workforce.
    - Furthermore, the female unemployment rate has shown improvement, declining to 1.8% in 2022-23 from 3.8% in 2017-18.

About Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is a flagship social security and public works program implemented by the Government of India.
Enacted in 2005, the scheme aims to enhance livelihood security in rural areas by providing at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual work.
Objectives:
- To provide 100 days of guaranteed employment in a financial year to every household in the rural areas.
- To create durable assets in rural areas.
- To strengthen the livelihood resource base of rural poor and
- Ultimately to enhance the livelihood security of the rural households.
Key Features:
- Scheme is open to all rural households who are in need of wage employment and desire to do manual and unskilled work.
- Period of employment should ordinarily be atleast fourteen days continuously with not more than six days in a week.
- Priority to works where atleast one third of wage seekers are women.
- Persons desirous for work may submit their applications to the Gram Panchayat.
- Gram Panchayat or Block Programme Officer shall provide unskilled manual work to the applicant within fifteen days of receipt of application preferably within a radius of 5 kilometers of the village, where the applicant resides.
  - In case the employment is provided outside such radius, it must be provided within the Block and the laborers shall be paid 10% of the wage rate as extra wages to meet additional transportation and living expenses.
- The programme will be implemented through Panchayati Raj Institutions.
Financial assistance shall be provided by Central and State Governments in the ratio of 90:10 respectively.

Look beyond headline numbers

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : The Indian Express

The recent second-quarter GDP growth estimate for the Indian economy has exceeded optimistic projections, indicating a seemingly healthy momentum.

However, beneath the headline growth figures, critical contradictions in the economic landscape raise concerns.

Key Highlights

Economic Growth vs. Employment Crisis:
- Despite robust GDP growth, the increase in more productive employment opportunities has not kept pace with the growing labor force entering the market annually.
- The employment challenge has intensified, with the workforce expanding from 460 million in 2017-18 to approximately 560 million in 2022-23, a growth of 100 million workers over five years.
- The manufacturing sector, considered more productive, has seen modest growth, adding just over two million jobs on average each year.
- In contrast, the less productive agriculture sector experienced a significant increase of more than eight million jobs annually.
Rise in Self-Employment, Particularly among Women:
- Seven out of 10 new workforce entrants are self-employed, and a majority of them are women, predominantly from rural areas.
- However, these self-employed individuals are often engaged in small establishments or serve as unpaid helpers in household enterprises.
- Notions of empowerment through self-employment are challenged by meager earnings, particularly for women.
- Real incomes of self-employed women in rural areas have seen minimal growth, and they earn less compared to their male counterparts.
Gender Disparities in Earnings:
- Statistics reveal significant gender disparities in earnings, with self-employed females in rural areas earning an average of Rs 5,056 in the last 30 days, while males earned Rs 13,831.
- Regular wage/salaried female employees earned Rs 13,825, compared to Rs 17,274 for males during the same period.
Employment Dynamics and NREGA Trends:
- Despite economic growth, there is a concerning rise in self-employment and a simultaneous increase in demand for work under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA).
- NREGA employment rose from 7.5 crore in 2017-18 to 8.75 crore in 2022-23, reaching 7.38 crore this year, with women constituting a growing share of workdays.
- The trends suggest that the surge in female workforce participation may be driven by financial distress and limited options for more productive employment.
Personal Loans and Financial Stress:
- The limited availability of productive jobs has led to a surge in households availing unsecured personal loans, potentially to meet consumption needs or finance self-employment activities.
- Outstanding unsecured personal loans of banks rose from Rs 10.5 lakh crore in March 2022 to Rs 14.5 lakh crore by September 2023, raising concerns about the financial sector’s stability.
- Rapid growth in such loans prompted the RBI to take measures to slow down its pace, indicating potential implications for household incomes and consumption.
Uneven Private Sector Investments:
- Despite public sector capex, the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, and healthy bank and corporate balance sheets, private sector investments have not revived as expected.
- New investment project announcements witnessed a plunge in the September quarter, with government capex playing a dominant role in driving investment activity.
Shift in Investment Dynamics
- A notable shift in investment dynamics is observed, with a significant uptick in investments in physical assets, particularly real estate, driven by relatively affluent households.
- The household sector, particularly affluent households engaging in real estate investments, played a significant role, contributing to approximately two-fifths of all investments in the economy.
- This surge in real estate investments has potentially influenced the overall investment rate during this period.
The economic landscape exhibits a rapidly growing workforce, where new entrants increasingly rely on less productive forms of employment, particularly in sectors with lower productivity.
- The investment cycle displays a dependence on both government initiatives and household contributions, overshadowing the role of the corporate sector.
- The observed combination of factors calls for a more measured and nuanced assessment of the country’s growth prospects.
- Policymakers need to consider the implications of this shift in investment patterns and the varying roles of different sectors in driving economic growth.

India’s Russian crude imports prevented price surge

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : The Indian Express

The petroleum and natural gas ministry in India has revealed that the country’s significant ramp-up of oil imports from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 played a crucial role in preventing a surge in global crude oil prices.

The ministry informed the parliamentary standing committee that if India had not imported Russian oil at a substantial volume of 1.95 million barrels per day, it could have led to a severe disruption in the international oil market, potentially causing a price increase of $30-40 per barrel.

Key Highlights

Importance of Indian Oil Absorption:
- Indian refiners importing 1.95 million barrels per day of Russian oil prevented a potential deficiency in the global crude oil market.
- The ministry representative emphasized that such a deficiency could have resulted in a significant price surge, causing havoc in the market.
- The global crude oil market, with a daily volume of 100 million barrels, is highly sensitive to changes in supply.
- When OPEC announces a reduction in production by just one or two million barrels per day, prices can increase by 10 to 20 percent, reaching $125-130 per barrel.
- The ministry representative stated that if India had not absorbed the 1.95 million barrels per day, global prices could have reached $120-130 per barrel, causing significant disruption.
India’s Changing Oil Suppliers:
- Russia, initially a marginal player in India’s oil imports, has become a primary crude supplier following the conflict in Ukraine.
- Indian refiners took advantage of deep discounts offered by Russia after Western nations began shunning Russian oil, leading to a shift in India’s crude suppliers.
- India, as the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil, maintained its stance to purchase oil from anywhere providing a good bargain.
- The country’s strategic approach to oil imports played a role in preventing global market upheaval.
Crude Oil Price Dynamics:
- After breaching $100 per barrel initially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global benchmark Brent crude prices have not surpassed this mark in 2023 and currently hover around $80 per barrel.
- The retreat in prices reflects a regained supply balance in oil markets.
India’s Diplomatic Stance:
- The petroleum ministry emphasized India’s sovereignty in making decisions that benefit the country and contribute positively to global stability.
- Despite challenges, India asserted its commitment to actions that align with national and international interests.
- Western sanctions on Russia have presented challenges for Indian refiners importing oil, including payment difficulties and logistical issues such as shipping and insurance arrangements.
- Not all Indian banks smoothly process payments in dollars for Russian oil purchases due to economic sanctions.
- To overcome challenges, Indian buyers arrange the import of Russian-origin crude oil grades on a delivery basis, where the seller takes responsibility for delivering crude oil with suitable insurance coverage at Indian discharge ports.

About OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was established in September 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq, through an agreement signed by the founding members:
- Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
These nations aimed to coordinate petroleum policies for stable markets and fair prices.
Over the years, additional countries joined OPEC, including Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Congo.
Currently, there are a total of 13 member countries. They are:
- Algeria
- Angola
- Gabon
- Iran
- Iraq
- Kuwait
- Libya
- Nigeria
- Congo (formerly known as Congo-Brazzaville)
- Equatorial Guinea
- Gabon
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates (UAE)
The organization’s statute allows for the admission of countries with substantial net crude petroleum exports that share similar interests, subject to approval by a three-fourths majority of full members, including the agreement of all founder members.
OPEC plays a crucial role in managing global oil supply and stabilizing prices through coordinated production levels and quotas.

India’s fiscal deficit may breach 5.9% of GDP target

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : TH

India Ratings and Research has indicated that India’s fiscal deficit for the current year may surpass the targeted 5.9% of GDP, potentially reaching 6%.

Despite robust tax collections, the fiscal imbalance is attributed to higher-than-budgeted revenue spending, expected to exceed the Budget Estimate by around ₹2 lakh crore.

Key Highlights

India Ratings suggests that the fiscal deficit could breach the 5.9% GDP target and escalate to 6%, driven by an anticipated increase in revenue expenditure.
Supplementary Demand for Grants:
- The Centre has obtained parliamentary approval for the first supplementary demand for grants in the fiscal year 2023-24, amounting to ₹53,378 crore.
- This brings the total spending commitment to ₹45.6 lakh crore, comprising ₹35.6 lakh crore for revenue expenditure and ₹10.1 lakh crore for capital expenditure.
- Analysts at India Ratings anticipate a second supplementary demand for grants, leading to a surge in revenue expenditure to ₹37.1 lakh crore, exceeding the budgeted amount by over ₹2 lakh crore for the year.
Factors Driving Expenditure Increase:
- Higher spending by select ministries is cited as a significant factor contributing to increased expenditure.
- The recouping of over ₹28,000 crore to the Contingency Fund of India, previously drawn as an advance by 30 departments, is also a factor.
First Supplementary Demand Highlights:
- Funds were sought for priority areas such as food, fertilizer, LPG subsidy, and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS).
- MGNREGS saw an expenditure of nearly ₹80,000 crore by December 19, surpassing the Budget Estimate of ₹60,000 crore.
- The supplementary demands included an additional ₹14,524 crore for the scheme.

About the Contingency Fund of India

Article 267 of the Indian Constitution authorized the creation of the Contingency Fund of India to address unforeseen expenditures.
In 1950, the Indian Parliament enacted the Contingency Fund of India Act 1950 to formalize the establishment and functioning of the Contingency Fund.
Purpose and Administration:
- The Contingency Fund of India is designated for disasters and unforeseen expenses.
- The fund is administered by the Finance Secretary (Department of Economic Affairs) on behalf of the President of India and can be operated through executive action.
Financial Evolution:
- In 2005, the fund’s size was increased from Rs. 50 crore to Rs. 500 crore.
- In 2021, there was a proposal to further raise the fund to Rs. 30,000 crore.

Understanding the Concepts

Fiscal Deficit:
- Fiscal deficit is the difference between a government’s total expenditures and the revenue it generates, excluding money from borrowings.
- It represents the amount by which a government’s total spending exceeds the revenue that it brings in, excluding money from borrowings.
- A high fiscal deficit may indicate that a government is spending beyond its means, and it often leads to increased borrowing, potentially impacting the overall economic health.
Revenue Deficit:
- Revenue deficit occurs when the government’s total revenue expenditure exceeds its total revenue receipts, excluding money from borrowings.
- It reflects that a significant portion of the government’s expenditure is non-productive, as it does not contribute to creating assets or reducing liabilities.
- A sustained revenue deficit can be a concern as it may indicate a structural imbalance in the government’s finances.
Revenue Expenditure:
- Revenue expenditure refers to the government’s spending on day-to-day operational expenses and the maintenance of existing assets.
- It does not lead to the creation of new assets.
- Examples include salaries, pensions, subsidies, and interest payments.
- Revenue expenditure is recurring in nature and is incurred for the ongoing functioning of the government.
Capital Expenditure:
- Capital expenditure involves spending on the creation or acquisition of assets such as infrastructure, buildings, machinery, and other capital goods.
- Unlike revenue expenditure, capital expenditure contributes to the creation of new assets or the enhancement of existing ones.
- Capital expenditure is typically non-recurring and has a long-term impact on the government’s infrastructure and productive capacity.

Note: This year’s budget estimated the fiscal deficit to be 5.9 per cent of GDP.

In Image: Showing trends in Government deficit over the past few years.

Are graduates facing unemployment?

(General Studies- Paper II and III)

Source : TH

In 1932, M Visvesvaraya highlighted the plight of educated unemployment in India, a concern that resurfaces today amid incidents like the Parliament breach.

While political discourse, attributes escalating youth unemployment to the current government, official data suggests a contrary trend.
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) reveals a reduction in the overall unemployment rate from 6.1% in 2017-18 to 3.2% in 2022-23.

Key Highlights

However, beneath this overarching positive trend lies a persistent challenge: the demographic most affected by unemployment comprises highly educated youth.
This phenomenon isn’t a recent development but rather a structural feature of the Indian economy.
The issue has deep historical roots, reaching back to the 1993-94 period, as evidenced by data spanning from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) to the latest PLFS surveys.
The data underscores the ongoing struggle to create employment opportunities for educated young individuals, despite an apparent decline in overall unemployment rates.
The findings emphasize the need for nuanced policy approaches to address the specific challenges faced by this demographic, ensuring that economic growth translates into tangible opportunities for the educated youth in India.
Unemployment Trends Across the Labour Force (Figure 1):
- The data indicates a historical low in unemployment rates for individuals aged 18 to 65 since the early 1990s, with a notable peak of 5.77% in 2017-18.
- However, by 2022-23, there is a positive sign of reduction, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.15%.
- Although current rates are higher than those in previous decades, the decrease from 2017-18 is noteworthy.
Higher Education and Unemployment (Figure 2):
- The trend reveals that individuals with higher education consistently face higher unemployment rates, a characteristic feature of the Indian economy since the 1990s.
- Specifically focusing on those with graduate degrees (Figure 2), the unemployment rate fluctuated from around 9% in the 1990s to 17% in 2017-18, before showing a decline to 13% in 2022-23.
Youth Unemployment with Graduate Degrees (Figure 3):
- Figure 3 presents the unemployment rate for young workers aged 18 to 29 with graduate degrees.
- From 1993-94 to 2004-05, a substantial portion (20-25%) faced long spells of unemployment (6 months or more).
- While the rate dropped to 20% in 2011-12, it surged to 36% in 2017-18, and by 2022-23, it reduced to 27%.
- The concentration of high unemployment rates among young graduates is a concerning shift.
Increasing Share of Graduates in the Labour Force (Figure 4):
- In 1993-94, only 5% of the labour force were graduates (Figure 4).
- However, with the expansion of higher education, this share has risen to around 15% by 2022-23.
- Despite low overall unemployment rates, the challenges for graduates persist due to the increasing share of educated workers in the labour force.

Implications and Future Challenges:
- The detailed analysis underscores the seriousness of youth unemployment, especially among the highly educated.
- The increasing enrollment rates and the rising share of graduates in the labour force raise concerns about the ability of the education system to impart relevant skills and the economy’s capacity to generate sufficient jobs.
- Addressing these challenges is crucial to ensuring that the potential of India’s demographic dividend is effectively harnessed, preventing the thwarting of youth aspirations.

What does China’s 2024 economic policy look like?

(General Studies- Paper II and III)

Source : TH

The 2023 CEWC, a pivotal annual meeting of the Communist Party, recently concluded, setting the economic direction for China in the upcoming year.

The readout from the meeting emphasizes a stability-oriented approach for the Chinese economy in 2024.
Key focus areas include transitioning from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production processes, achieving self-reliance in critical technology, and maintaining financial discipline and stability.

Key Highlights

Strategic Addressing of Challenges:
- The CEWC recognizes the need to shift away from export-led growth, particularly in the face of declining global demand and increased protectionism.
- The emphasis is on boosting domestic consumption, making it the primary driver of economic growth, while still maintaining a complementary relationship with international demand.
- President Xi Jinping refers to this shift as the “New Pattern of Development,” representing a significant structural reform for a nation traditionally recognized as the world’s manufacturing hub.
Focus on Dual Circulation:
- To address overcapacity in China’s manufacturing sector due to diminishing global demand, the concept of dual circulation is introduced.
- This involves a strategic emphasis on bolstering domestic consumption while ensuring a complementary relationship with international demand.
- The “New Pattern of Development” is aligned with this dual circulation strategy, emphasizing a balanced and mutually reinforcing dynamic between domestic and international economic activities.
Economic Recovery and Structural Reforms:
- Acknowledging three years of challenging economic policy planning during the COVID-19 pandemic, the CEWC underscores the importance of economic recovery in key areas.
- Structural reforms, including abandoning long-held beliefs and practices, are deemed necessary for achieving the outlined goals.
- This signifies a commitment to transformative changes within the Chinese party-state.
- While emphasizing self-reliance in critical technology, the CEWC also highlights the importance of collaboration with international trade partners as necessary.
- This reflects a pragmatic approach, recognizing the interconnected nature of the global economy.
- Ensuring financial discipline and stability of funds and liquidity are underscored as integral components of the strategic pathway.
- This indicates a commitment to sound financial management to support the outlined economic goals.
Key Measures and Strategies:
- Focus on Domestic Demand and Specialized Self-Reliance:
  - The primary emphasis is on boosting domestic consumption as the main driver of economic growth.
  - Resources are directed towards specialized self-reliance, driven by geopolitical contestation with the U.S. and declining exports.
- Vitalizing Research and Development (R&D):
  - Sectors requiring high-quality growth, such as high-technology and sustainable manufacturing, are prioritized in terms of R&D.
  - Notably, there is a shift away from provisions for low-end manufacturing segments.
- Agricultural Development:
  - Agriculture receives continued attention, contributing about 7.3% to Chinese GDP and 5% to GDP growth as of 2022.
  - Incentives for agriculture align with broader policy goals like “rural revitalization” and food security.
  - The economic plan aims to technologically advance agriculture through the establishment of “agriculture innovation centers.”
- Technological Self-Reliance:
  - Self-reliance in core technologies remains a focal point, responding to intensified tech-related export controls by the U.S. and its allies.
  - The CEWC emphasizes moving from “self-improvement” to demonstrating “strength” in high-technology, possibly reflecting increased confidence in China’s technological capabilities.
  - The focus extends to strengthening innovation and advancement in core technologies where China has demonstrated proficiency, such as semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence.
- Proactive Fiscal Policy Implementation:
  - China, under the umbrella of a “proactive fiscal policy,” has utilized various tools, including tax rebates for medium and small enterprises (MSEs) and interest rate discounts for local governments.
  - These measures aim to alleviate debt stress for MSEs, support regular payrolls, and facilitate unhindered infrastructure development by local governments.
- Addressing Local Government Finance Vehicle (LGFV) Debt:
  - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for a debt-relief package at the local and regional governments’ level, acknowledging the strain on local finances.
  - In October, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress approved a special bond issuance worth CNY 1 trillion for select local governments affected by natural disasters.
  - While not a direct LGFV bailout, it provided additional funding for disaster recovery and infrastructural resilience plans.
- Warning on Frugality and Financial Discipline:
  - The 2023 CEWC readout issues a warning to local authorities, urging them to embrace frugality and emphasizing strict supervision of financial discipline.
  - Recognizing the increase in debt burdens on local authorities, especially amidst declining domestic private investment, the emphasis shifts from bailouts to achieving “fiscal sustainability.”
  - The recorded LGFV debt in China is estimated to be around $60 trillion, encompassing loans, bonds, and shadow bank borrowing.
  - The key focus in the economic policy is not on bailouts but on ensuring “fiscal sustainability,” urging local authorities to manage their finances responsibly.
  - China’s monetary policy is undergoing a shift, emphasizing the stabilization of liquidity levels in the economy and avoiding excessive infusion.
  - This approach contrasts with earlier promises made by former Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the Davos Forum, where he vowed to provide a “blood transfusion” to the economy.
  - The focus on stability is prompted by the Yuan’s 8% depreciation against the dollar in 2023, a shift from its peak in January following the abandonment of the Zero-COVID policy.
- Economic Concerns:
  - Various factors, including lack of income confidence, rising unemployment, a high age dependency ratio, stagnant household savings, and capital outflows due to geopolitical hostility, indicate that injecting more liquidity may not be conducive.
  - Overall investment and borrowing sentiments are on the decline.
- Promoting Balanced Trade for Economic Resilience:
  - To address economic concerns stemming from capital flight and geopolitical competition, the 2023 CEWC emphasizes “promoting balanced trade” to “increase international demand.”
  - This provision indicates a willingness to open up China’s market to key trade partners, potentially fostering balanced trade relationships, especially with the European Union.
  - By promoting balanced trade, China aims to continue its path of “opening-up,” as emphasized in the CEWC readout, while simultaneously pursuing the goals of high-quality growth and navigating geopolitical challenges with a focus on self-reliance in key sectors.

Do shortened TB treatment plans offer the solution for India’s TB burden?

(General Studies- Paper II)

Source : TH

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health concern, with India contributing to 27% of worldwide TB cases, the highest country-wise burden.

The National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (NTEP) in India, in collaboration with the private sector, has made substantial progress in finding and treating millions of TB cases over the last decade.

Key Highlights

The gains achieved by the NTEP in reducing India’s TB burden face threats due to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB care.
The disruptions caused by the pandemic have the potential to reverse the progress made and exacerbate challenges, particularly in managing drug-resistant TB.
Challenges in TB Treatment:
- TB treatment, especially for drug-sensitive cases, requires a six-month regimen with medications that may have side effects and are challenging to swallow.
- The existing treatment protocols, especially for children, pose challenges due to tablet size, taste, and the daily duration of medication under direct observation for six months.
- Lengthy and challenging treatment contributes to patient discontinuation, both in pediatric and adult cases.
- Patients may prematurely stop treatment, increasing the risk of infection transmission and the development of drug-resistant TB.
Critical Need for Innovation:
- There is a need to explore new treatment approaches for TB, especially in countries with high TB burdens like India.
- The call for innovation is coupled with the importance of integrating new treatment approaches into national plans, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive and adaptable strategy to address TB challenges effectively.
Transformational Impact of Shorter Regimens:
- Recent studies, including the SHINE trial involving children across four countries, indicate promising results for reducing TB regimens.
- The studies reveal that a four-month treatment regimen, compared to the traditional six months, is highly effective for both adults and children with non-severe TB.
- Shortening treatment duration not only accelerates patient recovery but also enhances the feasibility of TB program implementation.
Global Recognition and Pending Adoption in India:
- The World Health Organization has included the study results in its TB treatment guidelines, acknowledging the significance of shorter regimens.
- Despite global recognition, India is yet to formally adopt the revised four-month treatment guidelines.
- Another recent study suggests the effectiveness of a two-month treatment course, showcasing ongoing advancements in TB treatment approaches.
Need for Innovation:
- Given India’s commitment to eliminating TB by 2025, there is a call for embracing innovative approaches and new treatment regimens.
- Identification of safe and effective drug combinations, with minimal toxicity and programmatic feasibility, marks a significant breakthrough after nearly 40 years.
- Urgent collaboration is needed among global and local researchers, funders, and regulatory authorities to identify optimal drug combinations for programmatic use.
- Political support at both national and international levels is crucial for advancing this research.
Addressing Cost Concerns:
- While costs are a determining factor, global experiences show that political will and negotiation efforts with drug manufacturers can lead to reduced prices for newer drugs.
- Lower costs can drive the global adoption of shorter-duration, less toxic drug combinations, aligning with India’s ambitious goal to eliminate TB by 2025.
Policymakers are urged to consider transitioning to shorter treatment courses promptly to avoid potential setbacks and preventable loss of lives in the fight against TB.

About Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious bacterial infection caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis.
It primarily affects the lungs but can also target other parts of the body, leading to various symptoms and complications.
Transmission:
- TB is transmitted through the air when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or speaks. Individuals inhale the bacteria-containing droplets, leading to infection.
- TB is not easily transmitted and usually requires prolonged close contact with an infected person.
Symptoms: TB symptoms can vary and might include:
- Persistent cough (often with blood-tinged sputum)
- Weight loss
- Fatigue
- Fever and chills
- Night sweats
- Loss of appetite
Types of TB:
- Latent TB Infection (LTBI): The bacteria are present but not causing symptoms. It is not contagious, but it can progress to active TB.
- Active TB Disease: The bacteria cause symptoms, and the disease is contagious.
Tuberculosis: Key Facts
- A total of 1.3 million people died from TB in 2022 (including 167 000 people with HIV).
- Worldwide, TB is the second leading infectious killer after COVID-19 (above HIV and AIDS).
- In 2022, an estimated 10.6 million people fell ill with tuberculosis (TB) worldwide, including 5.8 million men, 3.5 million women and 1.3 million children.
- TB is present in all countries and age groups.
- TB is curable and preventable.
- Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) remains a public health crisis and a health security threat.
  - Only about 2 in 5 people with drug resistant TB accessed treatment in 2022.
- Global efforts to combat TB have saved an estimated 75 million lives since the year 2000.
- US$ 13 billion is needed annually for TB prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care to achieve the global target agreed at the 2018 UN high level-meeting on TB.
- Ending the TB epidemic by 2030 is among the health targets of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Note: World TB Day: Observed on March 24 to raise awareness about TB and efforts to eliminate the disease.

Narrowing trade gap cuts India’s CAD to 1% of GDP

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : TH

India’s CAD for the second quarter of FY24 (July 2023 – September 2023) stands at $8.3 billion, equivalent to 1% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This marks a decline from $9.2 billion (1.1% of GDP) in Q1 (April 2023 – June 2023) and a significant reduction from $30.9 billion (3.8% of GDP) in the same quarter a year ago (Q2 FY23).

Key Highlights

Factors Contributing to Lower CAD:
- The decline in CAD is attributed to the “narrowing of merchandise trade deficit,” as reported by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
- The merchandise trade deficit decreased from $78.3 billion in Q2 FY23 to $61 billion in Q2 FY24, contributing to the improved CAD on a year-on-year basis.
- Services Exports Growth:
  - Services exports experienced a growth of 4.2% on a year-on-year basis during this period.
  - The rise in exports of software, business services, and travel services contributed to the positive performance of net services receipts, which increased both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis.
- Q2 FY24 CAD is lower than Q1 FY24, indicating a positive trend in the narrowing deficit.
India’s External Economic Indicators for Q2 FY24
- Net outgo on the primary income account, reflecting investment income payments, increased to $12.2 billion from $11.8 billion in the same period a year ago.
- Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances from Indians employed overseas, totaled $28.1 billion, showing a 2.6% increase from the previous year.
- Net foreign direct investment recorded an outflow of $0.3 billion in Q2 FY24, compared to an inflow of $6.2 billion in Q2 FY23.
- Foreign portfolio investment witnessed a net inflow of $4.9 billion, down from $6.5 billion in Q2 FY23.
- External commercial borrowings to India resulted in a net outflow of $1.8 billion in Q2 FY24, compared to a net outflow of $0.5 billion in Q2 FY23.
- Non-resident deposits saw a net inflow of $3.2 billion, up from $2.5 billion in Q2 FY23.
- Foreign exchange reserves (on a Balance of Payments basis) increased by $2.5 billion in Q2 FY24.
- India’s CAD for Q2 FY24 was reported at $8.3 billion, below expectations, driven by a smaller-than-anticipated merchandise trade deficit.
Economic Outlook and Expectations:
- Chief economist Aditi Nayar at ICRA notes that the Q2 FY24 CAD of $8.3 billion is well below expectations of around $13 billion, primarily influenced by a smaller merchandise trade deficit.
- Anticipates a widening of CAD in the ongoing quarter, possibly reaching $18-20 billion, particularly following the expansion in the merchandise trade deficit in October 2023.
- Forecasts the FY24 CAD in a range of 1.5-1.6% of GDP, with the caveat that a sharp rebound in commodity prices could alter the outlook.

Understanding the Terminologies

Current Account:
- The current account is one of the two primary components of a country’s balance of payments (BoP), the other being the capital account.
- It represents the sum of the balance of trade (exports minus imports of goods and services), net income from abroad, and net current transfers.
- It reflects a country’s economic interactions with the rest of the world in terms of goods, services, income, and transfers.
Current Account Deficit (CAD):
- A Current Account Deficit (CAD) occurs when a country’s total imports of goods, services, and transfers exceed its total exports.
- It implies that the country is spending more on foreign goods and services, as well as payments to foreigners, than it is earning from exports and receipts from abroad.
Components of Current Account:
- Balance of Trade (Trade Deficit or Surplus):
  - Trade Deficit: If the value of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports, it results in a trade deficit.
  - Trade Surplus: If the value of exports exceeds imports, it leads to a trade surplus.
- Net Income from Abroad:
  - Includes earnings from investments, dividends, interest, and other income received from foreign assets, minus payments made to foreign investors.
- Net Current Transfers:
  - Involves transfers of money that do not involve the purchase of goods, services, or financial assets.
  - Examples include remittances from foreign workers, foreign aid, and international grants.
- Implications of Current Account Deficit:
  - A persistent CAD may lead to a build-up of external debt if the deficit is financed by borrowing.
  - It can impact the country’s currency value and interest rates, affecting the overall economic stability.
- Primary Income Account:
  - The Primary Income Account is a component of the current account that includes income flows resulting from investments and other financial assets.
  - It mainly reflects payments of investment income, such as profits, dividends, and interest, to foreign investors who hold assets in the country.
  - Primary Income Account outgo contributes to the current account deficit.
- Private Transfer Receipts:
  - Private Transfer Receipts include remittances sent by individuals (private entities) from one country to another.
  - These remittances contribute positively to the current account balance, helping offset some of the deficit.

Renewable energy investments to surge 83% to .5 billion in 2024

(General Studies- Paper III)

Source : TH

India anticipates an impressive 83% surge in investments in renewable energy projects, reaching around $16.5 billion in 2024.

This projection aligns with India’s ambitious goal of achieving 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030, emphasizing a transition toward cleaner energy sources.

Key Highlights

Energy Transition Objectives:
- India aims to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels for power generation, targeting a shift to less than 50% of overall power capacity from fossil fuels by 2030.
- Union Power and New & Renewable Energy Minister envisions that 65% of power generation capacity will be from non-fossil fuels by 2030, surpassing the initial target.
Renewable Capacity Addition:
- The year 2024 is expected to witness a significant addition of 25 GW in renewable energy capacity, requiring an investment of approximately ₹1,37,500 crore (about $16.5 billion).
- This surpasses the previous year’s figures, which saw an addition of 13.5 GW with an investment of around ₹74,250 crore (nearly $9 billion) in 2023.
- In addition to solar and wind energy, India is intensifying its efforts in the realm of green hydrogen to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, particularly diesel, commonly used in various vehicles and freight services.
- The National Green Hydrogen Mission received approval from the Union Cabinet in January with a substantial outlay of ₹19,744 crore.
Net Zero Emission Commitment:
- India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, emphasizing its dedication to addressing climate change and promoting sustainable energy practices.

About National Green Hydrogen Mission

The National Green Hydrogen Mission is designed to incentivize and promote the commercial production of green hydrogen with the aim of making India a net exporter of this environmentally friendly fuel.

The mission encompasses key aspects, including demand creation, production, utilization, and export of green hydrogen.
Sub Schemes:
- Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition Programme (SIGHT):
  - Focuses on funding domestic manufacturing of electrolysers to produce green hydrogen.
- Green Hydrogen Hubs:
  - Identifies and develops states and regions capable of supporting large-scale production and utilization of hydrogen as designated Green Hydrogen Hubs.
- Objectives:
  - Aims to develop a green hydrogen production capacity of at least 5 MMT (Million Metric Tonne) per annum.
  - Simultaneously targets the addition of about 125 GW (gigawatt) of renewable energy capacity in India by 2030.
  - Envisages over ₹8 lakh crore of total investments and the creation of approximately six lakh jobs.
  - Foresees a cumulative reduction in fossil fuel imports by over ₹1 lakh crore.
  - Aims to achieve an abatement of nearly 50 MT of annual greenhouse gas emissions.
- Implementation and Nodal Ministry:
  - The mission falls under the purview of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.